EXCLUSIVE: Economy Remains GOP’s Biggest Vulnerability in North Carolina, New Poll Shows

FIRST ON THE DAILY SIGNAL—New polling from North Carolina reveals that while President Donald Trump scores his highest marks on border security and immigration enforcement, economic anxiety is threatening to undermine the GOP’s efforts to retain a U.S. Senate seat in the battleground state.

The survey of 1,512 registered voters, conducted Jan. 12-15 by the League of American Workers, shows Trump underwater on nearly every economic metric.

Trump’s approval rating on inflation sits at just 30%, with 59% disapproving. Overall economic performance fares only slightly better at 35% approval, while his handling of the budget and federal spending draws 34% approval against 53% disapproval.

For the first time in state history, there are more voters registered as Republicans (30.24%) compared to Democrats (30.21%). Most of North Carolina’s 7.7 million registered voters are unaffiliated (38.89%).

That might be an encouraging sign for Republican Michael Whatley, who is attempting to retain Sen. Thom Tillis’ seat for the GOP. But the polling tells a different story.

Cooper’s Commanding Lead

Democrat Roy Cooper, the state’s former governor, has a commanding 48% to 24% lead, with 27% still undecided.

Cooper remains popular with voters: 54% view him favorably compared to 31% unfavorably. A plurality has no opinion of Whatley: 43% said they weren’t sure, with 25% viewing him favorably and 32% unfavorably.

Voters ranked health care as the highest priority for North Carolina’s next senator. It topped the list at 50%, followed by inflation at 43%, and economic growth at 31%.

After serving two terms as North Carolina’s governor, Cooper entered the Senate race in July. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer considers him as a top-tier recruit as he attempts to win control of the upper chamber from Republicans in November.

Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman, received Trump’s endorsement. He previously led the state Republican Party.

Now, as he makes a statewide run, Whatley is facing an electorate deeply concerned about the economy. The gap between Republican strength on immigration and weakness on the economy couldn’t be starker.

Trump’s Strongest Marks

Trump received 50% approval on border control and 44% on immigration enforcement—his only policy areas in positive or near-positive territory. But those numbers are overshadowed by voters’ economic concerns, with 76% citing grocery prices as a top inflation worry.

The political environment remains challenging for both parties.

Nearly six in 10 voters say the country is headed in the wrong direction, and independents are particularly pessimistic—just 32% believe things are on the right track.

Trump’s overall approval in North Carolina stands at 39%, with 53% disapproving. In 2024, Trump won North Carolina by a margin of 51% to 47.8% for Democrat Kamala Harris.

Today, Democrats fare even worse at 30% approval and 54% disapproval.

Complex Terrain for GOP

Despite the high disapproval for his party, Democrat Gov. Josh Stein enjoys 48% approval against 22% disapproval, a 26-point net positive.

The poll also reveals a sharp generational split on national security. Half of voters support U.S. disengagement from Ukraine if no peace deal is reached, and the divide by age is striking: Gen Z supports withdrawal by a 42-point margin, while seniors oppose it by 11 points.

The survey, conducted with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points, underscores the complex political terrain facing Republicans.

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