First 2026 Senate Forecast Spells More Bad News For Dems

Democrats are staring at a difficult path ahead of the 2026 Senate elections, as the first forecast from Cook Political Report shows Republicans with the edge to keep control and potentially flip two more Democratic seats while Democrats have no clear path to winning back the Senate.

After riding a wave of support from President Donald Trump in the 2024 election, Republicans now hold a 53-seat majority, giving the party control of Congress and the White House. Of the 35 seats up for election in 2026, two seats currently controlled by Democrats are at risk of flipping to the GOP. According to Cook Political Report, the race for Democratic Sen. John Ossoff’s seat in Georgia is rated a “toss-up,” as is the race for the open Senate seat in Michigan, which is being vacated by retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters.

Of the 12 Democrat-held seats up for election in 2026, one of them, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), is “lean D,” and another, Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN), is “likely D,” while the rest of the races are safely in the Democrats’ hands as of today. Republicans, meanwhile, have two races that Cook Political Report has rated “lean R” — Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Thom Tillis (R-NC) — and one race rated “likely R” — Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH).

For Democrats to regain control of the Senate, they would have to pull off upsets in each of the three races where Republicans hold an advantage and pull off a major upset in one of the 19 seats considered safely Republican.

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— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) February 11, 2025

Georgia and Michigan will likely be the most closely followed races during the 2026 campaign. Ossoff, who won the seat in 2020 after going to a runoff election, will face a tough challenge to keep his seat. Multiple Georgia Republicans, including Gov. Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, have been floated as potential candidates, but none have officially announced a campaign.

In Michigan, Democrat Pete Buttigieg has been floated as a potential candidate for Sen. Peters’ seat. The former presidential candidate and Biden Secretary of Transportation moved to Traverse City, Michigan, around two years ago. Michigan Republican Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt announced his campaign for the Senate seat last month, and longtime Detroit Democratic Mayor Mike Duggan announced in December that he is running for the position as an independent. Other Republicans reportedly considering a run for the Senate in Michigan include Rep. John James, former Rep. and 2024 Senate candidate Mike Rogers, and conservative media personality Tudor Dixon, the 2022 Michigan GOP nominee for governor.

Another interesting race to watch will be the Florida Senate election. Ashley Moody, appointed by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, will run to keep the seat that formerly belonged to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The Cook Political Report labels that race as “solid R.”