Ohio Matters Mightily for 2026

The 2026 elections are 13 months away, and they’ll especially matter in Ohio. Not only will redistricting play a role, but there’s also the gubernatorial race, with Vivek Ramaswamy likely replacing term-limited Gov. Mike DeWine, a fellow Republican. As has been the case for the past few election cycles, Ohio is a state to watch, and 2026 is no exception.

Ohio came up during Wednesday’s episode of “The Tony Kinnett Cast.” Former Rep. David McIntosh, the co-founder of The Club for Growth came on to discuss “a midterm blitz” and redistricting. In Ohio, there’s a predicted pick-up of at least two seats.

From Redistricting…

McIntosh emphasized a key point, one Vice President JD Vance made about redistricting. “It’s key that we win these redistricting battles in the state level. The House is very closely divided,” McIntosh reminded.

“The goal here is to add anywhere from five to 10 Republican seats by matching what the Democrat have done for the past decade, and then conservatives and Republicans will be represented in Congress,” he added.

As Kinnett put it, Ohio is “turning out to be way more important for ’26 than anyone thought.”

Not only is redistricting mandated in Ohio, but some of the closest House races could be there. The two likely pickups are the seats held by Democrat Reps. Marcy Kaptur of the 9th Congressional District and Emilia Sykes of the 13th Congressional District. Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman of the 1st Congressional District could be a third. All have been targeted by the National Republican Congressional Committee.

McIntosh called to mind that there are really only 25-30 “battleground seats,” a category Kaptur and Sykes could certainly fall into. Those 25-30 races further benefit Republicans as “there are more Democrats sitting in a Trump district than Republicans representing a Kamala Harris district,” McIntosh explained.

President Donald Trump won the 9th Congressional District and came close in the 13th Congressional District.

McIntosh later spoke about the search for the ideal candidates, emphasizing the importance of those who are “committed to free markets, limited government, lower taxes, [and] who’s going to support President Trump on that economic agenda,” as well as campaign strategy. McIntosh also referenced the endorsement of Trump, which “is going to tell voters in Ohio, ‘We need you back again, you can’t just vote every four years. This is almost like a referendum on President Trump, get out and vote.'”

As Kinnett reminded, “Ohio has gone more red in the presidential [races] over the last couple of elections.” Trump won the Buckeye State in 2016, 2020, and 2024, after former President Barack Obama won in 2008 and 2012.

Speaking further about the “intensity” of such congressional races, Kinnett predicted that “this could be a big turning point, a big swivel point for the state of Ohio, for the next 10-20 years,” with McIntosh concurring.

…to Beyond

McIntosh and Kinnett brought up Ramaswamy with what McIntosh is “seeing on the ground” in Ohio. Ramaswamy “is exciting Republicans and independents all over the state with his vision for the state,” McIntosh pointed out.

The U.S. Senate race also came up. Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to fill Vance’s seat is likely to face former Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown, who lost last year to now Sen. Bernie Moreno.

“He’s sounded like one of them but he went back to Washington and just voted with these far-left crazies,” McIntosh said with regards to how Brown is “still trying.” Husted drew a contrast between himself and Brown when speaking to The Daily Signal, framing it as a “D.C. guy versus Ohio guy” race.

In between his appearances throughout Ohio, Ramaswamy took part in the Turning Point USA tour, speaking at Montana State University on Tuesday. While there, he spoke about the assassination of TPUSA’s Charlie Kirk.

During his 20-minute speech, Ramaswamy showed himself to be a charismatic figure, one who likely represents the future of Ohio and the conservative movement. He further demonstrated he is not only unifying the Ohio Republican Party, but that he is a young politician to be on the lookout for.  

The theme of his speech was “a fork in the road for the future of the conservative movement” as well as the importance of American “identity.”

Towards the end of his speech, Ramaswamy referenced his run for governor and the restoration of the American dream.

“That is up to us to deliver to you,” Ramaswamy told the crowd. “And if we fail now, we’ve got nobody left to blame but ourselves. I say that as somebody who is running for governor of my own home state of Ohio, next year. That is the standard I want you to hold me to. We expect that,” he said. “That’s on us. But in the meantime, don’t be cynical about our country, because it’s still the last best hope that we have on planet Earth.”

The State of the Race(s)

Kaptur and Sykes are in “Toss-Up” races, while Landsman’s is regarded as “Lean Democratic” or “Likely Democratic.”

Days after Brown announced in August, an Emerson College poll showed Husted leading Brown. Ramaswamy led Democrat Amy Acton, who has declared, as well as former Rep. Tim Ryan, who has not declared, though there’s chatter he’ll run. Both races “Lean Republican.”

Time will tell, not only when it comes to the effect the redistricting process will have, but how Trump’s second term and the state of affairs in Ohio, the country, and around the world will affect these races.

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