'Something historic': CNN analyst GOBSMACKED by how Vance polls against Nikki Haley, others

The 2028 presidential election is 34 months away, and in that time, there are sure to be plenty of surprises. There are, however, already clear signs of who may ultimately make a bid for the White House — and how they might fare in the primaries.

CNN's chief data analyst, Harry Enten, expressed surprise on Monday by how Vice President JD Vance performed in a recent poll of likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters against former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nimarata "Nikki" Haley, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and other prospects.

'The rest of the field are like going around in go-karts.'

Enten alluded to prediction market odds indicating that Vance is "running well ahead of the field" and that "nobody else is even close."

Polymarket puts Vance's chance of becoming the Republican presidential nominee in 2028 at 54%. The site has the chances of the runner-up, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, securing the nomination at 9%. This high confidence in Vance's chances is similarly expressed on the PredictIt site as well as on the federally regulated prediction market Kalshi, which suggests Vance and Rubio have a 48% and 10% chance of securing the nomination, respectively.

"JD Vance is like Mario Andretti, and Marco Rubio and the rest of the field are like going around in go-karts at this point," said Enten. "That's really what we are looking at. JD Vance is the clear, heavy favorite at this time."

Enten noted that Vance's staggering early lead reflected in the prediction markets "is not coming out of nowhere" and directed CNN talking head Sara Sidner's attention to a poll conducted in October by the University of New Hampshire.

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Photo by Caylo Seals/Getty Images

The poll found that among those who plan to vote in the 2028 Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire, 51% said they would vote for Vance; 9% said they would vote for Haley; 8% said they would vote for Gabbard; 5% said they would vote for Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders; 4% would vote for Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.); and 3% each would vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis or Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy.

Calgary-born Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who appears poised to run as the kind of Republican President Donald Trump crushed in the 2016 and 2024 GOP primaries, proved unable to capture 1% in the poll.

"Take a look here! JD Vance at 51%!" said Enten. "The next closest is Nikki Haley, who's at 9 — who's at 9! I mean, what is that? That's 42 points ahead of the pack."

"There's a reason why he's such a heavy favorite in the prediction market so far, because if you win the GOP primary in New Hampshire, chances are, you're going to be the Republican nominee for president," added Enten.

When asked by Sidner whether it was rare to see an early lead of this magnitude, Enten said, "I looked back. Hitting 50% plus in the early New Hampshire polls for a non-sitting president — JD Vance is the only one."

"JD Vance is pulling off something historic at this time," continued Enten.

While Vance's early lead is unprecedented, the last five sitting vice presidents who ran for president all became their parties' nominees.

A straw poll was also taken earlier this month at Turning Point USA's annual AmericaFest, where widowed CEO Erika Kirk endorsed the vice president.

Blake Neff, the producer of "The Charlie Kirk Show," noted that Vance won the AmFest straw poll "by more than Donald Trump won the 2024 one we did two years ago." Whereas 82.6% of respondents previously said they wanted to see Trump as the 2024 GOP nominee, 84.2% of respondents said they wanted to see Vance as their nominee in 2028.

The UNH poll that found a majority of likely GOP voters support Vance likewise found that there is a much closer race developing across the aisle.

Among those who plan to vote in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary in New Hampshire, 19% of respondents say they would vote for former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg; 15% would vote for California Gov. Gavin Newsom; 14% would vote for New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez; 11% would vote for failed presidential candidate Kamala Harris; 8% would vote for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.); and 6% would vote for Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker.

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