Three States That Could Reshape Congress in 2026

This year’s midterm elections could decide the balance of power in Washington. Beyond 2026, however, the outcome of these elections could determine the ideological direction of the Democratic and Republican parties as the clock starts ticking down on the 2028 presidential election.

Swing states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will again be political battlegrounds. But other states could prove just as decisive. Here are three you need to be watching.

Texas

On March 3, Republican and Democrat primary voters in the Lone Star State will go to the polls to determine their nominee for the state’s Senate race, which could play a significant role in determining the future of both parties.

On the Republican side, Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, an incumbent of over two decades, faces primary challenges from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt, R-Texas.

Both candidates have presented themselves as politically to the right of Cornyn.

Neither Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, nor President Donald Trump have made an endorsement in the primary.

Democrat primary voters will also decide between Democrat state Rep. James Talarico and U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas. Both Talarico and Crockett are young candidates with a major social media presence.

In the Texas primary system, if no candidate receives over 50% of the vote in a primary election, that would trigger a May 26 runoff election between the top two primary candidates. 

In the House of Representatives, several major Texas members are not seeking reelection, such as former House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul, budget chairman Jodey Arrington, and freedom caucus member Chip Roy. Roy is running for state attorney general.

These departures, combined with a recent redistricting bill that could flip around a half dozen seats to Republicans, will amount to a transformation of the Texas delegation.

Maine

New England is a reliable liberal stronghold, but it features plenty of races this year that are important for determining both parties’ power in Congress.

Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, is the only Republican member of Congress from the region, and she is up for reelection in 2026. 

Having represented the state for three decades in the Senate, Collins has established herself as an independent Republican, voting against the confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett, and opposing a Republican-backed budget reconciliation bill in July. She holds significant influences in the Senate as the top Republican appropriator.

President Donald Trump recently said Collins “should never be elected to office again” after her vote to rein in his military powers in Venezuela. 

Currently, the Cook Political Report rates the Maine Senate race a “toss-up” for 2026. Democrat competition has already lined up to challenge Collins for her seat. 

Democrat Gov. Janet Mills and military veteran and oyster farmer Graham Platner are the Democrat frontrunners. While Mills is thought of the state’s Democrat establishment, Planter is ,

This Democratic primary itself encapsulates major tensions within the party, as Mills, a 78-year-old established party figure, faces off against Platner, a 41-year-old who is Bernie Sanders-endorsed candidate, has accused Israel of “genocide,” and advocates highly interventionist economic policies.

Platner, however, announced this week he will step away from campaign activities to accompany his wife to Norway to seek IVF treatment. He said his campaign team will remain active in the state, according to WMTW.

Maine also presents opportunities for Republicans in the House of Representatives.

Democrat Rep. Jared Golden is not seeking reelection in 2026, presenting Republicans an opportunity in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, which Golden won by fewer than 3,000 votes in 2024.

Stepping up to the plate for Republicans is Paul LePage, who served as governor of Maine from 2011 until 2019.

New Hampshire

Another New England state to watch is New Hampshire, where Republicans control every branch of power on the state level but Democrats hold all federal offices.

Democrat Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is not seeking reelection in 2026, and Rep. Chris Pappas, D-N.H., is running for her seat.

Republican John Sununu, who held the Senate seat from 2003 to 2009, has launched a bid to retake his old seat. 

Sununu has received the endorsements of dozens of sitting Republican senators, including Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso of Wyoming.

Scott Brown, a former Republican senator for Massachusetts who now lives in New Hampshire, has entered the Granite State primary as well.

Cook Political Report rates New Hampshire as a “lean Democrat” seat.

What’s more, as the 2028 presidential election cycle approaches, candidates will likely be eager to woo New Hampshire voters, as the state will likely hold early primaries for Republicans and Democrats.

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