Who Holds Political Keys to the Keystone State?

The 2026 election year is set to be a big one for Pennsylvania with significant races at the gubernatorial and congressional level, and two years after that for the Senate.

The Keystone State is known for its purple political hue, with Democrat Barack Obama winning the Commonwealth in 2008 and 2012 before it broke for Republican Donald Trump in 2016. The state swung back into the Democrat camp in 2020, then went Republican again in 2024.

Democrat Governor Josh Shapiro and Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., are both up for reelection—the former next year; the latter in 2028.

Shapiro will be campaigning in a state that went for Trump in 2024 by 120,000 votes over Democrat Kamala Harris. The Pennsylvania Democrat won his first term in 2022 by more than 14 points, although that double-digit landslide win was likely due at least in part to a less than stellar GOP opponent.

Shapiro may find himself in a bind if state Republicans succeed in passing a bill that would ban males from participating in girls and women’s sports in Pennsylvania public high schools and public universities. The legislation passed the state Senate with bipartisan support, but is currently languishing in the Democrat-controlled state House.

Shapiro drew sharp criticism this week after joining a lawsuit to block Trump from placing prohibitions on juvenile gender surgeries and for criticizing supporters of that state Senate bill that would ban men and boys from competing in female sports, Fox News reported.

Shapiro is widely seen as having 2028 presidential ambitions, but has faced criticism in the Philadelphia Inquirer in recent weeks for bolstering his communications staff at Pennsylvania taxpayer expense. The governor has also been scrutinized over how he handled a sexual harassment claim against one of his aides. The governor’s office used $295,000 of taxpayer funding to settle the claim.

Shapiro also vetoed school choice legislation, despite having endorsed the concept on the campaign trail. 

Fetterman could face a Democrat primary in 2028. Conor Lamb, the former Pennsylvania congressman who unsuccessfully challenged Fetterman back in 2022 for the Democrat nomination in the Senate race, was profiled in Politico on Thursday about his recent tour around the state listening to voters’ concerns. Fetterman has received praise from the right for his stalwart support of Israel at the same time that some left-wing Democrat activists have criticized him for being insufficiently critical of President Trump.

Lamb also criticized his former Democrat primary opponent in the Politico piece. 

“But [a 2028 Senate bid is] three years away, and to be honest, when I started this, I thought John would maybe adjust and start acting like a better senator, and start speaking up for the people that he used to promise he was going to fight for, raising the minimum wage and all sorts of issues,” the former congressman was quoted as saying. 

The 2026 midterms will also see the entire Pennsylvania delegation in the House of Representatives up for reelection. Some Republicans, among them Reps. Rob Bresnahan and Brian Fitzpatrick, are in vulnerable districts. Fitzpatrick voted against the “One Big, Beautiful Bill” that the Trump administration used as a vehicle to pass his Make America Great Again priorities, including more funding for the border and defense and a no tax on tips provision. Bresnahan received good news in June: His 2024 Democrat rival, now-former Rep. Matt Cartwright, would not seek to reclaim Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District seat.

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