EXCLUSIVE: Estimate Claims Medicaid Ban on Child Sex Changes Saves Only Half What GOP Expected

A new preliminary estimate from the Congressional Budget Office that measured the impact of blocking Medicaid dollars from funding child sex-change procedures is causing Republicans to cast doubt on the CBO score.

A preliminary estimate from the CBO obtained by The Daily Signal claims the savings from prohibiting Medicaid funds for those gender-transition procedures amount to only half of what Republicans previously expected. Republicans previously anticipated that prohibiting Medicaid funds for gender-transition procedures on minors would save taxpayers $1.4 billion over 10 years in the House’s budget reconciliation bill, but the CBO’s preliminary estimate expects the provision would save only $700 million.

The CBO’s job is to analyze different pieces of legislation and provide Congress with a score that assesses how the proposal will impact federal spending, revenues, and deficits.

While CBO scores are a necessary part of the legislative process, Rep. Ralph Norman, R-S.C., told The Daily Signal in a phone interview that he doesn’t “put much confidence in them” because of previous inaccuracies. Norman explained that the CBO previously scored illegal immigrants coming into the country as a net positive for the deficit.

“It doesn’t surprise me,” Norman said. “It doesn’t change anything. I don’t care if it’s $1 billion, which if you’re in the shape we’re in now, you take advantage of it.” 

A preliminary score is the CBO’s early estimate of a bill’s impact on the public treasury. Those estimates are not official and are subject to change over time. As members of Congress continue to revise the reconciliation package over the weekend, the CBO will have to recalculate the impact of it.

Before the Energy and Commerce Committee’s markup, Democrats obtained a preliminary CBO estimate for the panel’s budget reconciliation legislation, which claimed that “the committee’s recommendations would reduce the deficit by at least $912 billion over the 2025-2034 period.”

When asked if the House could find more savings by expanding the prohibition on Medicaid dollars going to gender-transition procedures, Norman said, “I imagine so.” 

The total cost of individual transgender interventions can cost upward of $75,000, according to the Human Rights Campaign, one of the largest proponents of the radical gender ideology.

Cutting public funding for all transgender medical interventions is widely popular with Americans.

The American Principles Project found that 66% of Americans oppose taxpayer funding for all gender-transition procedures, and even The Associated Press recently found that 53% of Americans opposed taxpayer funding for “gender-affirming care,” including puberty blockers and hormone therapy.

Cutting taxpayer dollars for child gender transitions saves money, and taxpayers shouldn’t be forced to fund any gender transitions on minors, a senior legislative aide told The Daily Signal. But the greater benefits of the Do No Harm in Medicaid Act are moral, not fiscal, the aide explained.

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