Mixed Polls, Major Stakes: Experts Decode The Tight NYC Mayor Battle

Former New York Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo, 67,  and self-declared Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani, 33, are facing off on Tuesday in the New York Democratic mayoral primary, with a final poll suggesting the Syrian-born lawmaker could topple the veteran politician through ranked-choice voting.

Steve Kornacki, a national political correspondent and election analyst for NBC News, paints a nuanced picture of Tuesday’s primary vote, emphasizing that only two major public polls have been conducted in the lead-up to the primary, each showing vastly different results.

The Emerson College/PIX11/The Hill poll shows Cuomo leading Mamdani by a slim 35% to 32% margin in first-choice votes, but after multiple rounds of ranked-choice tabulation, Mamdani overtakes the former governor to win 52% to 48%. There are 11 Democrats on the primary ballot.

A Marist University poll conducted a week prior has Cuomo leading 38% to 27% in the initial round and 55% to 45% after several rounds of ranked choice.

In ranked-choice voting, voters rank up to five candidates in order of preference. If no candidate receives more than 50% of first-choice votes, the last-place candidate is eliminated, and their votes are redistributed based on voters’ next choices until someone wins a majority.

The polls diverge in two major areas, Kornacki explains: performance among black voters and the distribution of City Comptroller Brad Lander’s votes after he is eliminated in the ranked choice tabulation.

The Marist poll showed Cuomo with a 52-point advantage among black voters in the final round, while the more recent Emerson survey indicates Mamdani has closed that gap significantly, winning 38% of black voters in the final tabulation.

Lander’s projected elimination had little impact on the final round of the Marist poll, as Cuomo’s lead diminished only slightly from 13 to 10 points. In contrast, Emerson’s final round shows Lander’s votes propelling Mamdani to a 4-point lead over Cuomo after trailing in the prior round.

Brad Lander, recently arrested at an immigration court protest, could emerge as the race’s kingmaker.

Lander and Mamdani formed a strategic alliance last week, with each candidate asking supporters to include the other in their ranked ballots while excluding Cuomo — a move that explains why Mamdani gains substantially if Lander is eliminated in the tabulation process.

Political analyst and statistician Nate Silver points out, “[O]ne of the nuances of RCV (ranked-choice voting) is that negative campaigning can backfire just because it puts your name more in voters’ minds and therefore they’ll list you *somewhere* on their ballot.”

“I’m hearing things I don’t like about this Zohran guy, I’d better make sure to list him below [preferred choices] on my ballot’ is a lot *better* for Zohran than if voters don’t list him at all. Cuomo may benefit from this effect too,” Silver adds.

Kornacki predicts the tallying will likely continue past Tuesday, and the primary result might not even indicate the next mayor of deep blue New York City.

But no matter who wins the Democratic primary, both Cuomo and Mamdani are expected to appear on the general election ballot. Cuomo has already created the “Fight and Deliver Party,” which will allow him to appear on the November ballot regardless of today’s outcome, while Mamdani is poised to be the candidate of the Working Families Party in the event of defeat.

Meanwhile, current Democratic Mayor Eric Adams is running as an independent in the general election, while Republicans are poised to nominate Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa. The potential addition of both Cuomo and Mamdani further crowds the field for the general election in November.

Mamdani, who currently represents parts of Queens in the state assembly, has advocated for defunding the police, rent control expansion, government-sponsored grocery stores, higher taxes, and $65 million in taxpayer-funded “gender-affirming” trans procedures for adults and children.

Betting markets have the race in a dead heat as of Tuesday morning, leaning slightly in favor of Mamdani after the new Emerson poll, which accurately predicted the outcome of the 2021 primary, showed Mamdani taking the lead.