A Major Day for the ‘Big, Beautiful’ Bill

Today could be huge for Republican efforts to pass their “big, beautiful” budget reconciliation bill, which would fulfill a number of President Donald Trump’s campaign promises, such as extending his 2017 tax cuts and funding border security.

On paper, the budget bill is in its final stages. The bill came to the House Rules Committee—the last stop before going to the House floor for a vote—at 1 a.m. Wednesday morning. 

However, major disagreements remain which could stall the bill.

The Rules Committee has sweeping powers to rewrite parts of a bill—a power which will almost certainly be used by Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., to make concessions to holdouts on the bill.

Two major issues are left to be resolved. One of the most important is the issue of the cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions.

A SALT deduction allows residents in high-tax states to deduct their state and local taxes on their federal tax returns.

Pro-SALT Republicans such as Rep. Nick LaLota, R-N.Y., have made clear they won’t vote yes for any bill that doesn’t include a major increase in this cap. They have previously rejected an offer from Johnson to raise the cap on deductions from $10,000 to $30,000

On Tuesday, Jake Sherman of Punchbowl News reported that Johnson offered these holdouts “a new structure that would lift the SALT cap from $10,000 to $40,000 for those making $500,000 or less.”

This will be controversial among fiscal hawks, who are closely watching the deal.

The other major issue is Medicaid. 

Freedom Caucus hawks are demanding stronger reforms to the program, such as speeding up the implementation of Medicaid “community engagement” requirements that are currently set to kick in in 2029—after the next presidential election.

“If you have the reforms start in 2029 or even further out, they’re not going to happen. Because again, that’s fantasyland in Washington, D.C.,” Rep. Keith Self, R-Texas, a Freedom Caucus holdout, told The Daily Signal this week.

Many of these fiscal hardliners would also like to see a reduction in the federal matching rate of state Medicaid payments to Obamacare expansion enrollees

Throughout this entire budget debate, Johnson has tried to accelerate the process and calm disagreements by minimizing the importance of each step.

Back in April, Johnson was able to get some reluctant Republicans to sign off on a budget resolution they disagreed with, because in his words, “the resolution is not the law itself … so the real deliberation and the consensus has to be built around the bill itself.”

Fast forward a month, and now Johnson is pushing for an end to negotiations, despite some remaining disagreements in his conference.

Another move to turbo-charge the reconciliation process came Tuesday with Trump’s visit to Capitol Hill. The president reportedly urged Republicans to come to a speedy agreement on Medicaid and SALT.

It is far from certain that conservative hardliners will be willing to vote for the bill today.

Rep. Andy Harris, R-Md., chair of the House Freedom Caucus, told Newsmax Wednesday morning, “I think actually we’re further away from a deal, because that SALT cap increase, I think, upset a lot of conservatives.”

‘This bill actually got worse overnight. There is no way it passes today,” he added.

Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, who sits on the House Rules Committee previously stalled the bill in the House Budget Committee, similarly reposted messages criticizing the bill shortly before 10 a.m. Wednesday.

Johnson, however, told the press Wednesday that “there is a chance for a vote today.”

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