Republican Strategists React to Tennessee Special Election Results

GOP strategists are weighing in on what Republican candidate Matt Van Epps’s victory in yesterday’s special congressional election in Tennessee means for Republican chances in the upcoming midterm elections.

Epps, a former combat veteran and West Point graduate, defeated his Democrat opponent Aftyn Behn last night by a margin of nearly nine points in a race that drew extensive national media attention after Democrats secured electoral victories in several states last November. Epps will represent Tennessee’s 7th congressional district in the House succeeding Rep. Mark Green, R-Tenn., who resigned from Congress to pursue a private sector job.

The Daily Signal spoke with Chapin Fay, the founder and CEO of Lighthouse Public Affairs, about his key takeaways from the Tennessee race. Fay emphasized the Republican victory in spite of the adverse conditions affecting Republican turnout yesterday.

“This was an off-cycle, December special election heading into the midterms, which are historically difficult for the party in power. Despite the national Democrat machine and the media, this Democrat candidate did not even come close,” Fay explained.

“This is not to say there weren’t mistakes made, so I think the Republicans will modify their strategy,” Fay noted, adding “I absolutely think Republicans will take lessons from this.” 

“If Democrats are overconfident and run more far left candidates, the midterms won’t be the bloodbath they think it will be,” Fay concluded. As for what more Republicans can do, Fay pointed out that “President [Donald] Trump and his agenda needs to be paying dividends next year.”

He contended that the president’s priorities of “fewer wars, protecting Americans from the scourge of drugs” are “all good things.” Fay also spotlighted the importance of candidate selection.

“Running a far-left candidate will work in places like NYC, but not Tennessee and certainly not the swing states Trump won. My advice is to run candidates that align with the politics and issues of the district,” he said.

“The desire is to nationalize all these races when members of Congress are local elected officials. Run good candidates that align with the district and the issues but also have a positive policy agenda and clearly articulate it. Have your three points and run with it,” Fay continued.

Matthew Bartlett, a co-founder of Darby Field Advisors and a Trump administration official during the president’s first term, told The Daily Signal that “Just like in New Jersey, Virginia, New York, it’s no surprise which party won, but it’s the margins that count because the margins lead to money and momentum.”

“It is not an unmitigated disaster because the Republican candidate didn’t lose, but a nine-point win in an R-22 district a few months back should absolutely raise eyebrows,” Bartlett continued, referencing Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris in the district in the 2024 presidential election.

Bartlett contended that it was affordability issues that had brought the GOP to power.

“You need to recognize just how tough it is for people in America and demonstrate every day that you are fighting on their behalf,” Bartlett said.

Matt Terrill, the managing partner of Firehouse Strategies, a public affairs firm in Washington, also emphasized affordability in comments to The Daily Signal.

“Democrats want to take your money and spend your money, and the only thing you get for it is higher prices,” Terrill explained as a potential line of messaging when asked about what advice he would give to Republicans regarding a winning message.

“Every campaign is about ‘the now.’ What are you doing for me now,” Terrill noted.

The public affairs expert expressed that GOP elections without Trump on the ballot would be different than when the president was also running.

“President Trump is able to perform quite well with younger voters and traditionally Democrat voters. But in the 2024 election they were turning out for him,” Terrill said.

“Looking at the playbook in 2024, Republicans won on safety and security and on affordability,” Terrill concluded.

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