A Familiar Group Holds The Key To GOP Hopes in November

Republicans are increasingly worried that soft turnout among conservative evangelicals could cost them winnable races nationwide this November, giving Democrats an opening to pull off upsets in deep-red territory. 

Nowhere is that concern more acute than in Texas, where Republican Ken Paxton is struggling to pull ahead of Democrat James Talarico, a progressive Presbyterian who has described God as “non-binary” and said Jesus is not the only way to God.

The Daily Wire launched a deep dive into Talarico’s theology and the church he has long attended, exposing clergy members’ doubts about Jesus’ existence, rejection of the Virgin Birth, and interpretations of the crucifixion that conservative critics consider blasphemous.

Paxton, meanwhile, brings a laundry list of personal and political baggage that could alienate Christian voters, including infidelity and corruption allegations that led to his 2023 impeachment by the Texas House. The Republican-controlled Texas Senate ultimately acquitted him.

Dr. Robert Jeffress, senior pastor of First Baptist Church in Dallas, said the November ballot represents a choice between “the lesser of two evils” and described the high-stakes Senate race as a jump ball.

“Well, to be honest, I’m seeing more concern this time around than I have in any other recent election. Conservative Christians are troubled by Ken Paxton’s past, and I think they’re weighing right now whether they’re going to vote for the lesser of two evils or just stay at home,” Jeffress said in an interview with The Daily Wire.

“A few weeks ago, I was concerned about the number of people going to stay at home. I’m seeing a little shift in that. I think more are drifting toward Paxton now, but I think right now it’s a toss-up,” he added.

Jeffress, a longtime ally of President Donald Trump, predicted that most conservative Christians would reluctantly vote against Talarico, whose views he called “offensive” and said, “no true Christian can swallow.”

Speaking at the GOP’s September midterm convention, Jeffress denounced Talarico’s theology as “evil” and “blasphemous” while accusing the Democratic Party of advocating sin.

Jeffress explained in detail to The Daily Wire why he decided to speak out so publicly against Talarico.

“Talarico has made religion the cornerstone of his campaign. I didn’t make it the cornerstone; he made it the cornerstone,” Jeffress said. Citing Matthew 7, he compared Talarico to false teachers, whom Jesus described as “wolves in sheep’s clothing” in the Sermon on the Mount. 

“And my duty as a pastor is to call out false teaching so that people aren’t deceived into following a path that will ultimately lead away from heaven and into hell,” Jeffress said.

Polling shows white evangelicals oppose Talarico the most. Still, some Republicans fear party leaders are doing too little to mobilize one of the GOP’s most reliable voting blocs.

“I am not aware of any party machine that is at work right now to turn out evangelical voters,” one conservative Texas pastor told CNN anonymously. “Maybe they are assuming they are going to show up, but that is a dangerous assumption.”

A Republican strategist familiar with Paxton’s campaign told The Daily Wire that the GOP no longer targets individual demographic groups as aggressively as it once did, instead seeking to reach voters broadly through its messaging.

The strategist argued that evangelical voters, like other Americans, are primarily concerned with issues such as the economy, immigration, crime, and social cohesion. The source warned that sending Republican operatives into churches to rally support could also backfire.

Jeffress, who leads a 16,000-member congregation, agreed. “They’re absolutely correct about that,” he said. “Any political operative would not be welcomed in our church or any conservative church that I know.”

Instead, the GOP strategist said the Texas campaign is coordinating with other campaigns and groups, including Gov. Greg Abbott’s political operation, to address the challenge of turning out both high- and low-propensity voters.

Inconsistent voters often participate in high-profile presidential elections but skip midterms, when turnout is typically lower. President Donald Trump’s political operation effectively targeted such voters, including men, during his successful 2024 campaign.

“Evangelicals have to put gas in their cars just like everybody else. They gotta buy groceries just like everyone,” Rep. Mark Harris (R-NC), a former pastor, told CNN. “But I do think evangelical voters understand what is happening here.”

White evangelicals are the only religious group of registered voters in which a majority favors Republican House candidates, according to new Pew Research data released Tuesday. Nearly three-quarters (73%) of white evangelicals say they would vote for the Republican in their district if the election were held today, compared with just 12% who would back the Democrat.

White Catholic voters also favor Republicans over Democrats in their districts, though by a narrower margin of 50% to 32%. Other religious groups are roughly split or favor Democrats, while atheists and agnostics overwhelmingly back Democrats.

Still, Trump’s approval rating among white evangelicals has fallen 20 points since his inauguration, dropping from 78% to 58% — a decline that mirrors a broader slide in his approval across religious groups. Some evangelical leaders acknowledge that high gas prices could dampen voters’ enthusiasm this fall.

“Man does not live by bread alone, but man needs bread to live,” Ralph Reed, founder and chairman of the Faith and Freedom Coalition, told CNN. “So, whenever you’re dealing with issues of inflation, and, in this case, we believe very strongly, temporarily higher gas prices than we would like to see, and that the president would like to see, that impacts people in their daily lives, and sure, it has an impact.”

In 2016, evangelicals forged an unlikely alliance with Trump, voting overwhelmingly for him over Hillary Clinton. During his first term, Trump’s agenda — including his appointment of three conservative Supreme Court justices — helped earn their trust and, with it, their votes. Roughly eight in 10 white evangelicals voted for Trump in both 2020 and 2024.

Nearly one in four U.S. adults identifies as an evangelical Protestant. That share is substantially higher in key Southern states that could help determine control of the Senate, including Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. More than half of all evangelicals (52%) live in the South, and most are over the age of 50 — a demographic that tends to turn out at higher rates in midterm elections.

In Texas, Jeffress lamented the decline of biblical Christianity, even in the Bible Belt, but argued that Talarico’s ability to compete says more about the candidates themselves than about any waning evangelical influence.

“We’ve got two less-than-perfect choices. I think if Talarico wins, it’s not a narrative on Christianity. It’s just probably proof that we needed a different candidate,” he said. “Texas is certainly moving more purple and blue, and it may happen someday. I’m not sure it’s going to happen this cycle.”

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