Collins Moves Ahead as Maine Senate Showdown Enters Final Stretch

For the first time in weeks, longtime Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins is pulling ahead of Democrat opponent Troy Jackson in the November midterm election.

All eyes are on Maine ahead of the election, as it could be the seat that determines which party holds the majority in the 120th Congress.

The poll shows Maine favoring Collins, who is running for her sixth term in the U.S. Senate, at 49% among likely voters; Jackson, who was previously endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America, at 46%; and 5% undecided. However, the race remains close, as the margin of error was 4.9 percentage points which is not uncommon.

“If this November’s general election for U.S. Senate were held today, which candidate would you be more likely to vote for,” The New York Times, the Portland Press Herald, and Siena College Research Institute asked 619 voters from Sept. 15 to Sept. 22.

Pollsters also tracked how many likely voters plan to switch party alignment from how they voted in 2024. The results show that more Democrats plan to vote for Collins than Republicans plan to switch sides and vote for Jackson. Specifically, 12% of 2024 Harris voters polled plan to vote for Collins, while only 3% of 2024 Trump voters plan to vote for Jackson. Given his ties to the Democratic Socialists of America, it is not surprising that some Democrats would vote for the moderate Collins over Jackson.

“In Maine, Susan Collins is up three points over Democratic challenger Troy Jackson in a poll completed prior to new pay-to-play allegations recently reported about Senator Collins,” Siena Research Institute Executive Director Don Levy said.

While the poll was published Thursday, it was completed Tuesday, the day before Collins was accused of involvement in a pay-to-play scheme. A report by ProPublica said that former defense contractor CEO Martin Kao, a convicted fraudster, told the FBI his company gave a Collins super PAC $150,000 through a shell company.

“I’ve got to say, I do not understand how anyone would take the word of a felon who’s been convicted twice—twice, two separate cases—of five counts of money laundering, counts of bank fraud, false submissions to the FEC. He is a convicted liar,” Collins told The Wall Street Journal, denying the claims.

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