Could Affordability Decide California’s Governor Race?

In California’s gubernatorial race, Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton are hoping to win over voters with their drastically different plans to address affordability in the state with the highest cost of living in the nation. 

California’s high cost of living is top of mind for voters heading into the 2026 elections. A September poll conducted by SurveyUSA found that 49% of voters surveyed said the cost of living is the biggest issue California is currently facing. A Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy poll found that the cost of living and the economy will be a prime concern for 48% of voters when deciding how to vote.

This concern cuts across parties, too, as a US Polling Data poll found the economy ranked as the top overall issue for both Democrats and Republicans. 

California also has the highest poverty rate in the nation. Sam Trachtman, senior researcher at Berkeley Economy & Society Initiative, stated, “What’s primarily causing high poverty rates is the cost of living.” Californians have the highest cost of living in the country, with mid-tier homes usually costing around $775,000. This is over twice as much as most mid-tier homes throughout the country. 

One of the main drivers of unaffordability is high energy prices, and Becerra and Hilton have proposals that aim to bring energy costs down. 

At $6.36 per gallon, California gas prices are nearly $2 above the national average of $4.48. According to a study conducted by the Institute of Energy Research, factors increasing the price of gas are California’s “unique CARB fuel blend plus, unique hostility against oil production and refining, and other California specific policies.” 

The California Air Resources Board (CARB), a government agency that drives California’s climate agenda, requires gas sold in the state to be California Reformulated Gasoline (CaRFG). This raises prices at the pump because it forces California gasoline to be specially blended with certain additives and creates a complex refining process that few refineries are capable of achieving. 

CARB also established the state cap and trade program, and the Low Carbon Fuel Standard. They require fuel suppliers to buy credits per metric ton of carbon dioxide they emit. State trade and cap allowances are around $33 while Low Carbon Fuel Standard allowances are $82-$84. 

Though state regulation is a key contributor to high energy prices in the Golden State, Becerra’s plan to reduce prices relies on more state intervention. His goal is to reduce “pollution and emissions while lowering household energy costs.” Through oversight and accountability, he plans to “fight climate change.”  

Part of his plan known as “Power Hour” will offer up to two free hours of electricity during non-peak hours. Families could run dishwashers, washing machines, and air conditioning without cost. However, only certain families are eligible for this program based on “household income and household size.”  

Becerra’s economy and affordability plan focuses on using, “the power of the state to lower prices where the market has failed.” 

Hilton’s plan, however, aims to lower costs through deregulation. Hilton says he wants to “cut the red tape” and unleash California’s energy industry. Cutting the water bill from $81 a month to around $40 is one of the main ways Hilton plans to lower the energy costs. Increasing desalination, using forecasting to manage reservoirs, and building dams and reservoirs for more water storage are the main ways Hilton hopes to accomplish this.   

Another way Hilton will decrease costs is by lowering the gas prices to $3. He plans to achieve this by suspending the Low Carbon Fuel Standard and reformulation requirements. He will also eliminate the excise tax and “extreme environmental programs.” By deregulating, he plans to increase California’s oil production.    

During the gubernatorial debate on Sept. 30, Hilton stated, “The quickest way to get more money in people’s pockets is for the government to take less out.” 

A recent poll from SurveyUSA states that Becerra is supported by 48% of voters while Hilton has 35% and 17% remain undecided.  

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