Election Night Viewer’s Guide: Poll Closings and What to Watch Hour by Hour

All 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats, and governorships in 36 states are on the ballot on Tuesday. Republicans hold narrow majorities in both chambers of Congress, and forecasters believe Democrats have a real chance at taking one, or even both, back.

President Donald Trump has made this election about himself. For months, he has traveled from state to state urging voters to pretend that he is on the ballot.

The final New York Times/Siena University poll, released on Sunday, found Republicans trailing or essentially tied in all seven battleground states surveyed. Several of the races were within the margin of error, and, of course, polls aren’t votes.

Here’s your hour-by-hour guide for poll closing times and metrics to watch as votes come in:

6 p.m. EST: First Polls Close

The first votes and exit polls of the night will come from the eastern parts of Indiana and Kentucky. These are red states in which Republicans feel mostly comfortable, but if there are serious alarm bells for the GOP, they first could be noticeable in these states.

7 p.m. EST: Polls Begin to Close in Six States

Florida offers the night’s first real clues. In the Sunshine State, each county’s canvassing board must report all early votes and mail-in ballot numbers within 30 minutes of polls closing. In recent elections, that has meant most of the state’s vote is public by 7:30 p.m. The Panhandle, which is on Central Time, closes an hour later, which is why races can’t be called before then.

Republicans are favored statewide, so the number to watch isn’t who wins Florida, but rather the margin of victory in heavily Hispanic areas like Miami-Dade and South Florida’s competitive House districts like the 22nd and 27th. President Donald Trump won 46% of Hispanic voters nationally in the 2024 presidential election, and he won Miami-Dade by 11 points.

Two years after Trump’s victory, however, the president’s approval among Hispanics has slipped. Whether that decline shows up in South Florida will hint at how the GOP might do with similar voters in states like Texas.

In Georgia, Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff faces Republican Mike Collins for Senate, with Ossoff the likely winner. The closer race is for governor. Republican Rick Jackson, a billionaire health care executive endorsed by Trump, faces former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms in a close race.

In South Carolina, Sen. Darline Graham faces Democrat Annie Andrews in a race where both candidates are tied in a new NYT/Siena poll.

After Graham was appointed to the seat following the death of her brother, former Sen. Lindsey Graham, in July. She won an August primary for the special election and is now running for a full term. South Carolina hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1998.

7:30 p.m. EST: Polls Close in North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia

North Carolina Democrat Roy Cooper, the former two-term governor, faces Republican Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chair, for the seat held by retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis. In the beginning of October, Republican PACs shifted money away from the race, as Cooper seems likely to win. 

In Ohio, Republican Sen. Jon Husted, appointed to fill JD Vance’s seat after he became vice president, faces former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in a special election. The final NYT/Siena poll had Brown up 49% to 44%. The governor’s seat is also up for grabs, with Democrat Amy Acton, the state’s former health director, against Republican Vivek Ramaswamy.

8 p.m. EST: The Big Wave

Polls close in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Washington, D.C., the Florida Panhandle, Illinois, most of Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, most of Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and most of Texas at 8 p.m. EST. Polls close in Arkansas 30 minutes later.

In Maine, five-term Sen. Susan Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson, a former state Senate president who replaced Graham Platner as the nominee this summer, in what may be the toughest race of her career. The final NYT/Siena poll had Jackson up 51% to 45%. However, Collins trailed in most polls in 2020 and still won her race.

Her relationship with Trump is the subtext of the race. Collins voted to convict him in his 2021 impeachment trial and opposed his tax law; she also opposed Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s confirmation. Trump has called her “not my favorite person,” but he endorsed her anyway, and the vice president has visited Maine for campaign stops, a sign that a moderate is the GOP’s best shot at holding the seat.

9 p.m. EST: Another Big Wave

Polls close in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, western Kansas, Louisiana, the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, western South Dakota, the El Paso region of Texas, Wisconsin, and Wyoming at 9 p.m. EST. While most of Michigan and Texas close at 8 p.m., networks can’t call statewide races until every polling place is closed.

The Texas Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton is one of the nation’s most watched races. Sunday’s NYT/Siena poll had Talarico up 50% to 43% in a state where no Democrat has won in 30 years. Expect Talarico to lead the early voting numbers, which include mail-in and early voting, but as county day-of numbers come in, expect Paxton to see a surge.

The open-seat race between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan was upended on Sunday after El-Sayed’s primary opponent, Democrat Rep. Haley Stevens, announced that she is endorsing Rogers. Stevens said El-Sayed had told her she was no longer welcome in his campaign, after the two clashed over an outside group’s ad that she called antisemitic.

The race is also a test of how far left a Democrat can run in a swing state. Republicans have tied El-Sayed to the Democratic Socialists of America, while he has denied being a member. The NYT/Siena poll had El-Sayed up 53% to 42%.

Results will be coming in from other crucial Senate races in Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and Minnesota, as well as governor’s races in Arizona and Wisconsin.

10 p.m. EST: Polls Close in Montana, Nevada, Utah, and Most of Idaho

11 p.m. EST: Polls close in California, Washington, most of Oregon, and northern Idaho

California counts votes slowly. In fact, it could be several weeks before the results come in.

Midnight to 1 p.m. EST: The Last Polls Close

Polls in Hawaii and most of Alaska close at midnight. The Alaska Senate race between Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola is one of the hottest in the country; a new NYT/Siena poll has Peltola in the lead by just two points.

The race hasn’t been without drama. The four-way ballot includes a second Dan Sullivan: Dan J. Sullivan. The incumbent GOP senator, meanwhile, appears on the ballot as Dan S. Sullivan.

In the final days of October, the New York Times reported that the second Dan Sullivan appearing on the ballot was recruited by people associated with Peltola’s campaign and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Peltola’s campaign and the DSCC denied involvement in the scheme and called the report a “distraction.” The president has called for Peltola to be prosecuted, and his Justice Department has sued to block certification of the race if Sullivan narrowly loses.

Don’t expect an overall winner of the midterms on Tuesday night. Alaska uses ranked-choice voting, which slows the process of counting ballots; with expected late-arriving ballots, the race will likely take several weeks to finalize.

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