How Votes Will Be Counted As Two Senate Seats Hang In The Balance

With two Senate seats hanging in the balance, it will be days or even weeks before either party will be able to declare victory. 

The races in Mississippi and Alaska are still too close to call, with days left for officials to receive ballots. The outcome will determine the size of the Democrat majority in January, and both races could see legal challenges before the dust settles. While the Democrat candidates cling to narrow leads in both races, Republicans still have a path to victory in either race. 

Mississippi

As of Thursday, Democrat candidate Scott Colom held a 1,833-vote lead over incumbent Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi’s unexpectedly close Senate race.

While 70 of the state’s 82 counties have submitted their unofficial results into the state system, officials still have time to receive mail-in ballots. Ballots received by November 10 can be counted if they were postmarked on or before Election Day. After that final deadline, officials have until November 13 to submit their certified results. 

According to the latest update from Mississippi Secretary of State Michael Watson, there are an estimated 3,600 outstanding absentee-by-mail ballots, a number larger than Colom’s lead. County election clerks sent out a total of 122,590 absentee ballots for the 2026 midterms, according to the state. 

Mail-in ballots can be counted after Election Day thanks to a Supreme Court decision earlier this year stemming from a lawsuit involving Mississippi and the Republican National Committee. That could pave the way for Colom to add to his lead or Hyde-Smith to overtake the Democrat. 

Additionally, Watson said there are an “unknown number” of affidavit ballots that need to be processed by county election officials by November 13. Some of these provisional ballots are likely to be rejected by election officials.

An affidavit ballot in Mississippi is cast if the voter’s name is not in the poll book, an address has changed, the voter does not have an ID, or the voter has previously been marked as having voted by mail. The acceptance rate for affidavit ballots in the last two election cycles was between 70 and 75 percent. 

The National Republican Senatorial Committee sent a letter Thursday to all county election officials demanding that they separate and secure all affidavit ballots they received. 

“As the democratic process continues to play out, we are committed to ensuring that every single lawful ballot is accurately counted and the voices of all Mississippians are heard,” said NRSC Regional Press Secretary Samantha Cantrell. 

Both Colom and Hyde-Smith have said they expect to prevail in the race. 

“Our campaign is closely monitoring the remaining count,” the incumbent Republican’s campaign said Wednesday. “We remain confident that when every legally cast vote is fully and accurately counted, Mississippians will have reelected Cindy Hyde-Smith.”

Alaska

The Alaska Senate race could take even longer to determine thanks to lengthy deadlines for election officials to receive absentee ballots and its ranked-choice voting system. 

Democrat candidate Mary Peltola currently leads incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan by 637 votes. With counting continuing until November 18, there are estimated to be tens of thousands of ballots left to be counted. 

The next vote drop will come on November 10 when Alaska’s Division of Elections updates the count with more early voting and absentee ballots tabulated. After that, the deadline for domestic mail-in ballots to be collected is November 13, a day when the Division of Elections will issue another update on the count. By November 18, a final official count will be issued, including mail-in ballots received from Alaskans living abroad. 

If neither Sullivan nor Peltola has surpassed 50% of the vote by that final update, then ranked-choice tabulation will kick in. Under ranked-choice voting, the votes of those who backed the last-place candidate will be transferred to their second choice. The process is repeated until one candidate breaks 50%. 

Sullivan’s campaign released a memo on Wednesday arguing that both the outstanding ballots left to be counted and the ranked-choice system will lead to him being re-elected. 

“There are tens of thousands of votes outstanding. A big chunk of what remains is absentee and early votes from Friday, October 30th through Monday, November 2nd, votes cast AFTER the bombshell New York Times story dropped. We are confident these votes will benefit Dan,” his campaign said. 

Legal challenges could also follow a Sullivan loss following reports that top Democrat operatives recruited a retired teacher named Dan J. Sullivan to appear on the ballot in an effort to confuse voters.

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