NYT Poll: Late Deciders in Key Senate Races Breaking Toward Republicans

Late-deciding voters in seven key Senate races have been breaking toward Republicans over the past month, according to a new poll released Sunday night by The New York Times and Siena University.

“There are still some undecided voters, and voters who decided only in the last month favored Republicans by a nine-point margin,” the Times reported.

Still, the poll of 5,708 likely voters, conducted between Oct. 23 and Nov. 1, shows Democrat candidates in Michigan, Texas, Maine, Ohio, Kansas and Alaska maintaining leads, with Iowa essentially tied.

Specifically, the poll shows Abdul El-Sayed up 11 percentage points on Mike Rogers in Michigan; James Talarico ahead by seven points in his race against Ken Paxton in Texas; Troy Jackson ahead of Sen. Susan Collins by six points in Maine; former Sen. Sherrod Brown up five points on Sen. Jon Husted in Ohio; Adam Hamilton also up five points on Sen. Roger Marshall; and Mary Peltola leading Sen. Dan Sullivan by two points.

However, as the Times itself says, “surveys are not predictions.” According to the Times, “blue-collar white workers have proved particularly hard to reach in polls, and polling error has previously been among the highest in that demographic.”

The poll also was conducted before Sunday’s dramatic endorsement of Rogers by El-Sayed’s primary opponent, Rep. Haley Stevens.

Stevens had disputed a pro-El-Sayed advertisement widely called antisemitic, as well as the candidate’s association with some of the ad’s supporters and his previous anti-Israel statements.

The poll also was “mostly completed” before revelations about the Peltola campaign’s involvement in recruiting another man named Dan Sullivan to enter the race against the incumbent senator, potentially confusing voters. While Peltola denies any personal role in the effort, her former campaign manager, Elisa Rios, told the Times that Peltola was “definitely aware” of the scheme. Rios later sought to retract her comments, but the Times refused, citing other sourcing consistent with her original statement.

In summary, Siena University concluded, “While a blue wave, and Democratic control of the Senate is, according to our polls, a distinct possibility, with so many races within the poll’s total margin of error, a Senate majority for either party remains possible.”

With both the House and Senate up for grabs, Tuesday’s elections are, as the Times says, “high stakes.” Indeed, “a record-setting more than $11 billion has been spent on advertising in the midterms.”

See how election night shakes out with Tony Kinnett’s special five-hour midterm coverage event, featuring Victor Davis Hanson and other guests.

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