Poll Shows Tight Race in Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District

A new survey in Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District shows former Rep. Elaine Luria with a narrow 3-point edge over Republican incumbent Rep. Jen Kiggans.

That is within the poll’s 4% margin of error, meaning the race is effectively a dead heat going into the final weeks of the campaign.

The poll of 702 likely voters was conducted by Christopher Newport University between Oct. 1-10, which is a longer measurement period than similar polls. The Washington Post/Schar poll of Virginia’s 1st and 5th districts, for example, lasted for seven days, while some national polls are wrapped up in three days.

“While 10 days is longer in the field than I would like, it does seem that it takes longer for congressional district polls than it does statewide,” Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo, the interim director of Christopher Newport’s Wason Center for Civic Leadership, told The Daily Signal. She added that the center will not conduct another poll before the election.

The poll’s topline result shows Luria, who represented this district from 2019 to 2023, leading Kiggans 46% to 43%. But both campaigns took issue with the numbers.

“CNU’s polls underestimated Jen Kiggans’ margin of victory in both 2022 and 2024,” Kiggans campaign spokesman Calvin Moore told the Daily Signal. “We’re confident voters will reject Elaine Luria’s alarming record of self-dealing in office and her plan to raise middle-class taxes $3,600 a year.”

The Luria campaign also weighed in.

“The only poll that matters for this campaign is the one on Election Day,” Luria campaign spokesperson Zach Emanuel told The Daily Signal. “Until then, Elaine will continue working hard across the district to earn every vote and share her plan to lower prices for working families, end the culture of corruption in Washington, and replace the craziness in Congress with common sense.”

The Christopher Newport poll also asked voters in the 2nd District about the statewide race for the Senate between Democrat Mark Warner, who is seeking a fourth term, and Republican Bert Mizusawa, a retired Army major general. The survey showed Warner up by 14 points in this district, 51% to 37%. That race might poll differently in the state’s other 10 districts.

The pollsters also asked about which issues are top of mind for voters.

Of the complete sample, 24% said cost of living, 20% said threats to democracy, and 11% cited immigration. Republicans were most concerned about immigration, with 24% naming it as their top issue, while Democrats were most focused on the cost of living, with almost one-third citing that concern.

President Donald Trump’s unpopularity in the district may prove to be a problem for the incumbent Kiggans. One-third of voters told pollsters that they approve of his job performance, while 62% said they disapprove.

Voters often break for the party that is out of power in a midterm election, especially if the president’s approval rating is low. In this survey, “a plurality of respondents (43%) think about their congressional vote choice as a vote against President Trump while 37% say he is not much of a factor in their vote choice and 14% say they think about their congressional vote as a vote for Trump,” the pollsters wrote.

Gov. Abigail Spanberger has also lost ground, according to the poll. She won this district with 53.6% of the vote last year. In this poll, 49% said they disapprove of her job performance, while 42% approved.

The poll showed that one-fifth of the voters surveyed said they have already voted. That included 29% of Democrats, 16% of independents, and 13% of Republicans. Early voting ends on Halloween, with Election Day on Nov. 3.

Luria plans to attend a campaign event alongside other Democrats such as Pete Buttigieg, Tom Perriello, and Shannon Taylor on Monday. Kiggans’ team told the Daily Signal that it is still working out her schedule.

More from this network:
Domains for Sale · GOTPeople.org · TheDSAPlatform · The Truth About Socialism

Donate to GOTPeople.org