The Six Senate Seats That Could Spoil The Dem Honeymoon

Other people are going to throw their hat into the ring for the 2028 GOP presidential nomination. 

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is very likely to run for president.  He told Stephen A. Smith that the issue with the Iran war was the execution, not the war itself. 

He’s right. 

“So here’s the thing with Iran and why I think it’s been a big, big drag,” he stated. “You know, it was launched. He obviously ran saying he wasn’t going to do a Middle East, but he did. So we had some of our voters who’ve checked out because they’re like, ‘I didn’t want any more Middle East wars, and now we’re doing it.’ Had that been wrapped up in like a week like Venezuela was  — very quick — it probably wouldn’t have been an issue right now.”

“But what’s happened is it’s kind of an open-ended conflict, and it’s having a direct impact on people’s finances,” he continued. “Gas is higher. It hurts people, working-class people, and it’s higher because of this conflict. That’s just the fact.”

That is a correct analysis. DeSantis also spoke with Fox News host Laura Ingraham, telling her Republicans are “not viable nationally” if they can’t win in places like Kansas.

“It’s a big difference between Texas — that was a potential extinction event there because they got swept out of everything from governor to the Supreme Court and even the House of Representatives,” he pointed out. “That is going to do damage, not just in Texas. It’s going to hurt the Republican Party going forward. And if we can’t win in places like Texas or Kansas or Iowa, we are not viable nationally.”

There are some memes that are going around online that are talking about what happens to Republicans from here, the kind of panic memes that say we won’t win back the Senate until 2036. First of all, we should never make the mistake of regarding the electoral map as static. That is a gigantic mistake.

In fact, believing the electoral map is static is foolish. If Democrats regarded the electoral map as static, they certainly wouldn’t have won Texas or Kansas or maybe a seat in Mississippi. The electoral map shifts. It moves. Things change. 

But if you look forward two, four, or six years, plenty of seats are available for us to win back in the Senate if we course-correct.

Let’s say that Republicans end this election cycle down 55-45. In 2028, six Democratic seats are vulnerable. Mark Kelly in Arizona. Raphael Warnock in Georgia. Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada. Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire. Sherrod Brown — for the third time in three election cycles — in Ohio. And there’s John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, who is much more Republican in some ways than Democrat at this point, but he’s still a Democrat.

All of those people are on the ballot. All of them in a normal electoral environment are vulnerable. I understand that we magically transformed Arizona and Georgia into states with two Democratic senators and now Democratic governors. But those are the states that went for President Trump.

Mark Kelly and Raphael Warnock should be vulnerable. Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada should be vulnerable. Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire won below 50% of the vote in her last election cycle. She should be vulnerable. Sherrod Brown is vulnerable, as is Fetterman in Pennsylvania. All of them are on the ballot in 2028. That election is six people – six seats – we could get back.

So if we finish down 55-45 in this electoral cycle, you could theoretically win back the Senate in 2028. If you move forward to 2030, you have Ruben Gallego in Arizona, Angus King in Maine, Elissa Slotkin in Michigan, Jacky Rosen in Nevada, and Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin. 

That’s 12Senate seats in states where Republicans either already have senators or governors or have had senators in the last couple of years. 

So again, these panic-stricken memes such as “We’re never going to win again. It’s all over” are just that: Panic-stricken.

If you’ve been around in American politics long enough, you know that’s not true. We are not at the end of the road in the Senate, not by a long shot, but that does require course correction.

For all the Republicans right now who are experiencing sleepless nights — including me — who are having some serious heartburn right now, there’s one thing that we always have to remember: Democrats are really bad at this. 

They’re going to come into Washington, D.C., riding high, feeling their oats, believing they can do whatever they want to do, and then they’re going to jump on every rake.

Once Democrats make Zohran Mamdani their kingmaker, they’re going to lose the plot. And they will. When he’s got that smarmy grin on his face, understand who the Democrats are bringing into power and what they will be. 

It is going to be radical, and it’s going to be insane. Chuck Schumer is out there saying, “Relief is on the way.” In other words: “I’m from the government, and I’m here to help” — what Reagan called the nine most terrifying words in the English language.

Relief came this morning in the form of a gigantic dump in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which plummeted 2.5% upon the initial open. Some of that has to do with the fact that Democrats taking power means they’re going to try to kill the golden goose that is AI development.

With Democrats in control, it ain’t going to get better, folks. It’s going to get worse.

And Americans won’t like it.

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