Transgender activist groups are getting out ahead of their skis when they interpret Democrat midterm victories as an endorsement of transgender ideology.

The Human Rights Campaign touted its efforts boosting Democrats and portrayed the election results as vindication for candidates who resisted Republican attacks on transgender issues. The results, however, tell a more complicated story.

Not only did ballot initiatives preventing men from competing in women’s sports perform well in blue and purple states, but even prominent Senate candidates like Texas’ James Talarico openly defied Democrat orthodoxy on transgender issues in the lead-up to Election Day. Talarico’s statements represented a sharp reversal from his own prior rhetoric, suggesting that he realized support for transgenderism would be a political liability.

“Tonight voters delivered a resounding message: equality wins,” HRC President Kelley Robinson said Tuesday. “After two years of MAGA Republicans waging a culture war, wasting taxpayer dollars attacking LGBTQ+ people, and spending $340 million on anti-trans ads while families suffered, voters have had enough.”

While HRC-endorsed candidates prevailed in many key races, the results are far from a ringing endorsement of transgenderism.

HRC’s Victories

HRC spent $15 million on the midterms, raised more than $2 million for pro-LGBTQ candidates, and identified 74 million of what it calls “equality voters.”

The organization said it provided “research-tested tools” to campaigns facing transgender-related attacks and “consulted directly with dozens of campaigns.” It concluded that its research “proves candidates don’t have to choose between standing for equality and winning elections.”

Democrats are projected to win all seven of the U.S. Senate races HRC prioritized, and the organization’s preferred House members were leading on Wednesday afternoon.

Robinson noted that New Hampshire Democrat Chris Pappas will become the first openly gay man elected to the U.S. Senate. She also listed three LGBTQ candidates who won election to the U.S. House, along with Rep. Sarah McBride, D-Del., the only member of Congress who identifies as transgender.

According to The 19th News, six candidates also won elections that will make them the first transgender or nonbinary members of their state legislatures. One of these candidates, Bentley Hudgins, served as HRC’s Georgia state director for three years before winning the state legislature race.

Breaking With the Trans Orthodoxy

Some of those very victories may pose a problem, however.

James Talarico, the Texas state legislator who won the Lone Star State’s U.S. Senate race, said he “will oppose trans athletes playing in girls’ sports if it risks safety or fairness.” He also said, “There are not six sexes, there are two.”

These statements marked a notable reversal from Talarico’s previous stances, not only stating that there are six sexes but also defending votes in support of transgender ideology by making theological claims, such as “God is nonbinary.”

Sarah Trone Garriott, an HRC-endorsed candidate who won a U.S. House race in Iowa, released a video in which she says, “I oppose letting men in women’s locker rooms.”

Benjamin Ryan has noted many other examples of Democrats who broke with the party’s narrative on transgender ideology but nonetheless won their elections. Dr. Annie Andrews, who defeated Darline Graham in the South Carolina Senate race, released an ad in which she said, “I don’t support biological men playing women’s sports, and I don’t support and haven’t ever performed, gender surgery for minors.” Andrews had voted against a ban on men in women’s sports and a ban on surgeries.

Ballot Initiatives

Meanwhile, nearly 60% of voters in Arizona—a state with a Democrat governor and senators—passed a ballot initiative preventing men from competing in women’s sports and protecting women’s privacy in bathrooms and locker rooms.

As of Wednesday afternoon, blue state measures to ban men in women’s sports in Colorado and Washington are ahead but remain too close to call.

Voters in Nebraska also passed an initiative banning men in women’s sports, with 68% support.

The Human Rights Campaign had a good night, but voters didn’t give transgender ideology a mandate. If anything, the results demonstrate that Democrats can buck transgender orthodoxy and win, even as voters separately embrace policies that HRC opposes.

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