What to Expect from Trump’s Summit with Xi

President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinpeng will likely confront China’s ties to Iran, the artificial intelligence race, Chinese prisoners, and Taiwan policy in their meeting in Washington, D.C. on Sept. 24.

Adam Savit, director for China Policy at America First Policy Institute, said the summit should be viewed as a follow-up to Trump’s May trip to China, not a reset.

“It’s building on the gains that President Trump’s leverage brought to Beijing, basically opened up personal diplomacy and a channel for negotiations,” he told the Daily Signal.

Iran

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced sanctions on countries that support Iran, raising questions about if China, Iran’s top trading partner, would be included.

Trump will be able to talk directly with Chinese officials about the conflict, revealing how far the administration is willing to go to hold China accountable for potential involvement.

China claims they don’t directly fund Iran, but they accounted for 90% of their oil revenues at least before the war, which funds Iran’s treasure chest, Savit said.

“There’s an interesting tightrope that they’re walking, in which they’re trying to hold countries accountable for supporting Iran, but they also want to maintain a relatively predictable and stable U.S.-China relationship,” Heritage Foundation China expert Andrew Harding told the Daily Signal.

China has rare earth mineral leverage on the U.S., but the U.S. has leverage on chips, and both countries can play these tools against one another, said Michael Lucci, founder of State Armor.

“I would expect all that to be at play under the guise of both sides projecting as if the relationship is stable,” Lucci said. “The countries are competing extremely viciously and separating from vulnerabilities from one another as quickly as possible. But on the surface, both sides are content to protect stability.”

Artificial Intelligence

The AI race is top of mind for many in Washington heading into the summit.

Tech companies like Anthropic and Open AI have recently raised concerns about safety threats associated with rapidly developing AI, and many have urged the president to make a deal with Xi to slow down the AI race.

The Trump administration has taken a light tough approach to AI, stressing the need to win the AI race with China instead of imposing regulations on emerging U.S. technology.

Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, said Trump and Xi would win a Nobel Peace prize if they made a deal on AI.

“Even if just the U.S. and China could agree on some shared standards and testing for development of this technology, I think that’d be a wonderful accomplishment that the two of them can deliver,” he told Fortune.

But Trump has made clear that he is not interested in pursuing a slowdown.

Altman, Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, and Qualcomm’s Cristiano Amon plan to attend next week’s Sept. 24 state dinner with Trump and Xi.

Trump’s AI policy is heavily influenced by Huang, who received approval from the government to sell H200 processors to major Chinese technology firms. Trump could make an agreement to sell more chips to China, though China hawks warn against weakening existing controls on semiconductors because it could enhance China’s military and intelligence capabilities.

Taiwan

“Even if there’s one or two mentions about it, that alone could be the defining issue of the summit,” Harding said.

Trump’s last visit to China left unanswered questions about potential changes to U.S. Taiwan policy. Trump said that arms sales to Taiwan can be “a very good negotiating chip,” though the U.S. usually uses arm sales as a way to help Taiwan deter China.

“President Trump should make clear that U.S. decisions on Taiwan policy, including arms sales, will be based on Taiwan’s security requirements and U.S. law and not used as bargaining leverage in any negotiation with Beijing,” writes Harding.

Lucci does not expect U.S. policy on Taiwan to change.

“President Trump, in his first year, approved a record amount of weapons for Taiwan,” he said, “and I think it’s very important to note that the amount of weapons Trump approved to Taiwan in 2025 is more than the entire four years of President Joe Biden.”

Release of Hostages

“This is just how the Chinese Communist Party negotiates,” Lucci said. “They grab a bunch of American hostages so that we have to ask for them back in the next summit.”

Trump is expected to discuss with Xi the release of American hostages such as Min Zin, a University of California-Berkeley scholar, who was detained in China in June when he traveled there for an academic workshop.

“Ezra Jin was released after the last summit, so I’m sure that we’ll be looking for more religious leaders and other people on exit bans and things like that to be released,” Lucci said.

Additionally, Jimmy Lai, a 78-year-old newspaper publisher sentenced to 20 years in prison, will die in prison unless Trump is able to secure his freedom. Trump promised in his 2024 campaign to free Lai, but it has not yet happened.

The hostages demonstrate that “the lack of freedom of religion in China, and that only state-sanctioned churches can can operate freely,” Savit said.

“What [Trump] can do is keep the pressure up, raise the issue, put it in the mix for the summit conversation, but you know it ultimately comes down to Beijing calculating their own interests in these exchanges,” he said.

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