What to Make of Ohio’s Early Voting Numbers

With the midterms just under three weeks away, Ohio has nearly a month of early voting, spanning from Oct. 6 to Nov. 1 before Election Day.

The Daily Signal spoke with Tony Schroeder, chairman of the Putnam County Republican Party, for his thoughts on what the preliminary data could mean for voter enthusiasm.

Initial analysis may suggest that Democrats have more enthusiasm on their side as questions remain about whether Ohio will retain its red state status or go back to being a purple state.

“Generally, Democrats dominate absentee voting, and Republican voters make it up in the in person early vote (IPEV),” Schroeder said. “What we’re seeing this year is that Democrats are definitely behind in absentee voting. They may turn out later in the early voting period or on Election Day, but we are seeing no evidence that there has been a surge of Democrats anxious to vote.”

“Anecdotally, it appears that their ages 18 to 29 segment is lagging. We like what we are seeing for just the first week of early voting so far,” he added.

Ohio also has many non-affiliated voters, who may be more likely to vote for one party over the other—but it’s a question of whether they’ll turn out.

An article published Oct. 11 by CNN spoke to that supposed enthusiasm in Ohio, claiming “there are clear signs Democrats are more enthusiastic to vote.”

“So far, affiliated Democrats make up larger shares of pre-election voters than they did two years ago, even in the most Republican parts of the state,” the article notes, referring to data from Oct. 8, when early voting had just begun.

The CNN article also makes two important admissions: Republicans tend to vote on Election Day, and “while early in-person voting is at 72% of what it was at this point in 2024, mail voting is at just 25%.”

Blue Wave, or No Blue Wave?

The early voting data caught the attention of Tony Kinnett for Tuesday’s episode of “The Tony Kinnett Cast.” The host downplayed narratives that the 2026 midterms will be “this massive blue wave,” especially when it comes to “the momentum side of this particular election.”

First, he noted that mail-in ballot requests, which typically favor Democrats, are “plummeting.”

“The media outlets are essentially covering this and putting at the very tail end, like the very back end of the article, that everything that they’re saying is completely bogus and they’re just doing it anyway,” Kinnett said.

He added that line about the 72% versus 25% mail-in voting comparison between the 2024 and 2026 elections “is in complete disagreement with the very first part of the article.”

Kinnett also referenced data from an account on X, OhioPoliticsGuru, that has been tracking areas of early voter turnout by party, with Democrats appearing to have an advantage with higher turnout. Looking at a graphic featuring data from Monday, Oct. 12, Kinnett also pointed out that “the number of total voters is much, much, much lower.”

However, the Democrats’ early voting advantage in Ohio has also looked to have gone down each day, as OhioPoliticsGuru posted Wednesday on X.

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