4 Senate Race Predictions Shift in Political Forecast

As midterm elections loom, a major political forecaster is shifting its predictions in four Senate races to be more favorable for Democrats.

While it is an uphill climb for Democrats to take back the upper chamber, changing Cook Political Report race ratings suggest there might be a chance.

“With an increasingly sour national environment for Republicans, the Senate battlefield is shifting in Democrats’ favor,” wrote Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report in a Monday article announcing the moves.

She qualified, “Due to the difficulty of the map, [Democrats’] winning back a majority still remains a tall order. The GOP remain the narrowing favorites to retain the upper chamber.”

In order to wrest control of the Senate from Republicans, Democrats will need to net four additional seats.

“We concede that these ratings changes are coming as [President Donald] Trump is at a new polling low and still navigating a yet-to-be-resolved war in Iran,” wrote Taylor, who suggested that “things could rebound for his party” or “still get worse.”

Georgia

Political analysts forecasting which party controls the Senate come 2027 have Georgia on their mind.

Cook is upgrading incumbent Democrat Sen. Jon Ossoff’s chances of holding onto his Senate seat in Georgia from a “Toss Up” to “Lean D.”

Ossoff has been a powerful fundraiser. 

In the Republican primary, Reps. Mike Collins and Buddy Carter, as well as former college football coach Derek Dooley, are all vying for their party’s nomination.

A spokesman for Collins’ campaign disagreed with the rating shift.

“The most vulnerable Democrat in the U.S. Senate hasn’t been able to hit 50% in a single poll, despite Georgia being one of the states waiting until the last minute for Republicans to effectively rally around its nominee,” he said. 

“The only shifting to look for is Collins in a Peterbilt running down Ossoff once Republicans unite,” he added.

A “Peterbilt” refers to a truck manufacturer—a reference to Collins’ trucking company.

Dooley’s campaign also challenged the report.

“Jon Ossoff’s record is atrocious. He voted with Joe Biden and Kamala Harris 98% of the time, fueled 40-year-high inflation that hurt families, put the American people in danger by leaving our southern border wide open, and tried to raise taxes on every Georgian,” said Connor Whitney, a Dooley spokesman, in a statement.

“Every chance he gets, he turns his back on the people of Georgia,” Whitney said. “It doesn’t matter what prognosticators in D.C. think, voters won’t forget Ossoff’s record at the ballot box in November.”

Carter and Ossoff’s campaigns did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

North Carolina

Cook Political Report is also shifting the Tar Heel State’s Senate race from “Toss Up” to “Lean D.”

Democrat former Gov. Roy Cooper will face off against former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley to fill the seat of retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis.

The state has in recent history favored Democrat candidates for state-level offices, but Republicans for federal offices.

The Daily Signal reached out to both campaigns for comment on the shift.

“We know D.C. Republicans will literally spend hundreds of millions and do whatever it takes to prop up Big Oil lobbyist and D.C. insider Michael Whatley,” Jeff Allen, Cooper’s campaign manager, told The Daily Signal.

“This race will be very close which is why we are building a campaign to earn every vote and make sure North Carolinians know that Roy Cooper will fight for them in the Senate.”

Whatley’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Ohio

The Cook Political Report appears to believe Democrats have a chance to flip a Senate seat in conservative Ohio, shifting the odds from “Lean R” to “Toss Up.”

Then-Sen. Sherrod Brown lost his Ohio Senate seat to Republican Bernie Moreno in a hard-fought, exorbitantly expensive Senate race in 2024. 

Now, Brown is back to challenge Sen. Jon Husted, R-Ohio, who was selected by Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine to fill the vacant seat of Vice President JD Vance.

Brown is a familiar face in Ohio, having first taken office in the Senate in 2006.

Neither campaign immediately responded to a request for comment.

Nebraska

The Cornhusker State is not high on many analysts’ lists of 2026 battlegrounds, but Cook’s latest rating suggests it is not necessarily a shoo-in.

In November, Sen. Pete Ricketts, R-Neb., who is finishing the term of retired Republican Sen. Ben Sasse, will seek a six-year term in the Senate. 

Ricketts was originally appointed to the seat by Gov. Jim Pillen to succeed Sasse in 2023, and then won a 2024 special election to finish the term.

Democrats are not running a candidate in Nebraska. 

The Nebraska Democratic Party has endorsed independent candidate Dan Osborn for the seat, a repeat of its strategy in 2024, when Osborn unsuccessfully challenged Republican Sen. Deb Fischer with the Democrats’ endorsement.

Cook is now shifting the race’s rating from “Solid R” to “Likely R.”

Will Coup, a spokesman for Ricketts’ campaign, responded to an inquiry on the Cook rating with a statement in which he cast doubt on whether Osborn is a true independent.

“Osborn has said multiple times he would caucus with Democrats. He supports taxpayer benefits for illegals and allowing men to compete in girls sports,” said Coup. “Just like in 2024, Nebraskans won’t be fooled.”

Osborn’s campaign did immediately respond to a request for comment.

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