Inflation Report Surprises Economists As Key Metric Drops To Lowest Level Since 2021

Inflation cooled in November, coming in lower than what economists predicted, a win for President Donald Trump as he becomes more aggressive in his messaging on the economy.

The consumer price index report released on Thursday shows that prices rose by 2.7% year-over-year, a drop from the 3% rate shown in the most recent report in September. The 2.7% rate is the lowest overall inflation reading since June and surprised experts who predicted that inflation would jump above 3%.

The Trump administration celebrated Thursday’s report and pointed to another metric, which shows that key services inflation has fallen to its lowest level since March of 2021. The key services inflation gauge, which takes out housing and energy costs and is closely tracked by the Federal Reserve, also came in at 2.7%.

“Thanks to @POTUS’ pro-worker economic policies, inflation has fallen to the lowest level since March of 2021,” said Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer. “The facts are clear: President Trump is making progress to fix the affordability crisis caused by Biden and deliver relief for hardworking Americans.”

Zooming in on specific items in the consumer price index, food increased 2.6% year-over-year, while energy jumped 4.2%. Electricity was up 6.9% over the past year, and natural gas was up 9.1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. November’s report comes after the federal government did not release a consumer price index report in October due to the record-breaking government shutdown.

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Harvard Economics and Public Policy Professor Ken Rogoff told CNN that he was “surprised” by the inflation report.

“It was a better number than anyone was expecting,” Rogoff said, adding, “People were expecting it to be above 3%. It was well below 3%. I think the president will take this as good news. The investors will think that interest rates will get cut more. So, it was positive news. There’s no other way to spin it.”

The stock market also reacted positively to the news, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all making gains on Thursday.

Trump has been focusing on his economic messaging in recent weeks as the Republican Party gears up for the 2026 midterm elections. The president has blasted Democrats over their focus on the so-called affordability crisis, which he calls a “hoax” and argues that his economic policies are fixing the “mess” that he was left by former President Joe Biden.

Trump addressed the nation from the Oval Office on Wednesday night, touting his economic policies and announcing a “warrior dividend” of $1,776 for American service members. During his address, Trump also highlighted his aggressive immigration policies, arguing that the illegal immigrants who flooded the country under Biden had a negative impact on the U.S. economy.

Trump is set to visit North Carolina, an important battleground state in the upcoming midterms, on Friday for the next stop on his tour, bringing his economic message directly to his supporters. North Carolina will be the second stop on Trump’s economy tour after he visited Pennsylvania last week.