Inside the Closely Watched Race for Texas’ 15th Congressional District

Texas’ 15th Congressional District is shaping up to be a closely watched race in South Texas, with Democrat Bobby Pulido leading Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz in the latest public polling.

The redrawn district now stretches from the Rio Grande Valley into parts of Coastal Bend and South Texas, including communities such as Edinburg, Weslaco, and Alice.

De La Cruz, who has represented the district since 2023, is seeking reelection against Pulido, a Tejano singer and small-business owner who has faced scrutiny over his association with longtime friend and former bandmate Frankie Caballero, a convicted sex offender.

Pulido’s campaign presents him as a centrist focused on issues including the economy, health care, education, and immigration. On his campaign website, Pulido says the border should be secured “without destroying families and our local economy in the process.” He also supports establishing “more vetting hubs in Central America” and creating what he describes as a “more fair and reasonable path to legalization” for immigrants who want to come to the United States to contribute.

On education, Pulido says he opposes school vouchers, arguing that they drain “money from our classrooms and send it to private schools.” He also calls for increased funding for public schools.

Pulido has also faced controversy during his campaign over his past comments and relationship with Caballero.

In July, The Daily Caller reported that Pulido had previously said that molesting kids is “not necessarily rape.” The comments resurfaced after reports that Pulido had brought Caballero to perform at a benefit concert at a Texas middle school in 2016. Caballero is a convicted child sex offender. 

In an unearthed post on X, Pulido wrote, “Child molestation is abhorrent. But is not necessarily rape or murder, what you said. My point, and Geraldo’s point, is they have been unfairly demonized. It’s like if I said that whites shouldn’t be able to buy guns because most mass shooters are white.” 

A month before The Daily Caller report, The New York Post reported that Pulido had bragged about getting Caballero out of jail, who then went on to sexually assault an 8-year-old girl. Pulido’s campaign has disputed aspects of the report, saying he did not post bail for Caballero or directly facilitate his release and that Pulido was not aware of the full extent of Caballero’s criminal history. 

Pulido did not respond to a request for comment by the time of publication. 

De La Cruz, who is seeking a third term in Congress, is campaigning on border security, agriculture, energy, and the economy. Her campaign platform calls for reinstating the Remain in Mexico policy, ending catch and release, supporting Border Patrol and Customs and Border Protection agents, and reimbursing farmers and ranchers for confirmed damages caused by illegal immigrant traffic. She also calls for making energy more affordable and produced in the United States. 

During her first term in Congress, De La Cruz supported multiple Republican-backed bills including The Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act and voted to impeach then-Department of Homeland Security Secretary Nicholas Mayorkas. She has continued to support legislation backed by President Donald Trump during the 119th Congress, including the SAVE Act and the “One Big, Beautiful Bill.” 

The newly drawn district voted for Trump by about 18 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election, while De La Cruz won reelection to the previous version of the district by about 14 points. 

However, public polling this year has shown a closer contest. The latest publicly available poll, conducted Aug. 18-22 by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University among 700 likely voters, showed Pulido with 50% support and De La Cruz with 45%. Other 2026 public polls have also shown Pulido leading by smaller margins. 

The Cook Political Report changed its rating for the race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up” on Sept. 25. Cook noted that while the district’s 2024 presidential vote favored Trump by 18 points, public and private polling has shown the race either tied or with Pulido ahead. 

Election Day is Nov. 3, 2026. 

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