JD Vance Pins Republican Midterm Losses On Iran War

Nov 04, 2026 - 11:02
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JD Vance Pins Republican Midterm Losses On Iran War
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WASHINGTON— In a blunt analysis Wednesday morning, Vice President JD Vance said that Republicans lost the midterm elections because of the war in Iran, prompting Republican voters who had MAGA’s back in 2024 to vote for Democrats.

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“The reason we lost is the war,” Vance said, adding: “The president himself said so last night.”

Vance was quiet Tuesday evening as commentators and politicians flooded the airwaves with celebratory or post-mortem analysis. On Wednesday morning, he posted a lengthy statement on X where he discussed his internal conversations with data analysts in the weeks leading up to the midterms.

“One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was ‘composition’—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win,” he reflected. “And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic.”

“There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up,” the vice president explained. “So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we’re going to shock the world? ‘No,’ he told me. ‘We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us.'”

That message, Vance said, looks prophetic as of Wednesday morning.

“Our voters did show up,” he said. “In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout.”

Turnout was not the main problem, Vance argues.

Photo by CARLOS BARRIA/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

“The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026,” he said. “There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true. But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.”

The vice president described talking to another pollster who told him on Tuesday that Republicans would lose the generic ballot by 13 points, warning that Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats.

“He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team,” Vance said. “The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were: 1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel.”

“Our voters showed up,” he continued. “And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats.”

Vance predicted that there will be “a lot of gaslighting” in the next few months, suggesting that establishment politicians will argue that the solution to Republican “woes” is amnesty.

“I’m open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance,” Vance said. “But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.”

“The reason we lost is the war,” the vice president said, adding, “The president himself said so last night.”

Vance encouraged Republicans to be honest about the situation at hand, saying he is open to arguments as long as they are genuine and honest.

“But everyone knows why we lost,” he said. “And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.”

“I remain hopeful about our country,” the vice president concluded. “To the people who are pissed off and want to say, ‘I told you so’: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.”


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Fibis

I am just an average American. My teen years were in the late 70s and I participated in all that that decade offered. Started working young, too young. Then I joined the Army before I graduated High School. I spent 25 years in, mostly in Infantry units. Since then I've worked in information technology positions all at small family owned companies. At this rate I'll never be a tech millionaire. When I was young I rode horses as much as I could. I do believe I should have been a cowboy. I'm getting in the saddle again by taking riding lessons and see where it goes.

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