New Poll Shows Jackson, Bottoms in Standoff as Early Voting Surges Across the Peach State

Republican gubernatorial candidate Rick Jackson and former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, a Democrat, are in a dead heat, according to a new poll by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

The poll, conducted by the University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs Survey Research Center, shows Jackson polling at 46%, while Bottoms follows closely behind at 45%.

Insights on the Close Race

Garrison Douglas III, a campaign spokesperson for Jackson, told the Daily Signal that “the poll makes clear that Georgia voters want a candidate who will continue to build on Governor [Brian] Kemp’s legacy.”

With Jackson’s slight edge over Bottoms, the Daily Signal reached out to M.V. “Trey” Hood III, director of the University of Georgia’s research center and a professor of political science, for his insights into why the race is in a deadlock.

Hood told the Daily Signal that one reason could be because “there’s no incumbent in the race.”

While discussing the numbers of the race with Jackson at 46% and Bottoms at 45%, Hood said that “what … [the numbers] really mean is that it’s a statistical dead heat. You can’t really tell who’s ahead and who’s behind. It’s so close.”

He added, “In the other polls that have come out, [those] have been pretty close as well.”

Charles Bullock, a professor of political science at the University of Georgia, told the Daily Signal that another factor helping Jackson is his campaign war chest.

“Rick Jackson has spent probably a quarter of a million dollars so far,” he said, adding, “It also helps Jackson that Keisha Lance Bottoms has some baggage, and Jackson’s ads make that point hundreds of times every day.”

While the ads have certainly been helpful at pointing out Bottoms’ record as mayor of Atlanta, Douglas commented on her intentions for office. “Keisha Lance Bottoms has said she wants to undo the progress Georgia has made under Gov. Kemp.”

What Does the Survey Show?

The poll, dated Oct. 16, surveyed voters with various questions, ranging from their preferred candidate in the race to their approval of Kemp’s performance.

When voters were asked who they would vote for to lead the Peach State, the survey showed that nearly 8% of voters remain undecided.

The poll also showed that Bottoms holds a 26-point lead among moderate voters, putting her at nearly 55%, with Jackson at nearly 29%.

Among independents, Bottoms led by 5 points, putting her at 43% and Jackson at roughly 38%.

When it comes to strategy for winning over independent voters, Hood added, “Jackson … he talked about [President Donald] Trump in the primary, but now he’s pivoted back to the center. … He is reaching out to these independent voters, [and] moderates in the suburbs.”

“She [Bottoms] is as well.”

Early Voting Surges Across the Peach State

The discussion on strategy for the governor’s race comes at a crucial time in Georgia’s history as early voting is underway.

According to the University of Florida’s Election Lab, more than 1.2 million early votes have been cast, with nearly 480,000 early votes in person from those over 65. Following closely behind are those in the 41-to-65 age range, accounting for 42% of votes.

Out of those who voted early in person, females outnumber males by nearly 10 points, with nearly 55% of females voting and nearly 45% of males voting.

Bullock commented on early voting in the Peach State, saying, “I think it [started] … in 2008, and with each passing election cycle, more people choose to vote on their schedule rather than on Election Day.”

He said that “Democrats are … voting early [and] in greater numbers than Republicans are.”

Who Will Win the Race?

Ultimately, as Hood said, “You have to turn out your base, but in Georgia, [you] have to capture a certain number of these moderate voters as well.”

Looking forward toward Election Day on Nov. 3, Douglas said that, if elected, “Jackson will build on Gov. Kemp’s progress, make Georgia more affordable and lower income and property taxes.”

The Bottoms campaign did not respond to the Daily Signal’s request for comment.

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