New Poll Shows Wisconsin Governor’s Race Is Up for Grabs

With mere days until the midterms, a new poll shows the race for Wisconsin governor could tip either way, with the man behind the poll saying the toss-up race is indictive of contests across the country.  

The poll, conducted by the League of American Workers from Oct. 19-23, 2026, surveyed 1,213 likely voters with a cross-section of ages, views, and levels of education. Of the participants, 28.3% were Democrat, 31.9% were independents, and 34.1% were Republican.  

A Governor’s Race Up for Grabs 

Likely voters are almost equally divided in the governor’s race, with David Crowley, the Democratic Party candidate, holding 47.7% support and Republican Tom Tiffany at 44.6%. Another 7.7% of voters remain undecided.  

When asked, “Even if you have not made up your mind, which candidate would you lean toward voting for?” 15.7% chose Crowley while 19.5% supported Tiffany. Another 64.8% still remained undecided.  

“Though Tom Tiffany trails, it’s within the margin of error,” League of American Workers founder Steve Cortes said. “In addition, the Congressman leads among the ‘leaners’ who have yet to decide.” 

“The economy remains the driver for most persuadable voters, which is problematic for GOP nominees,” Cortes stated. “However, the Democrats have nominated ideologically extreme, unlikable, unimpressive candidates, including David Crowley in Wisconsin, giving the Republicans a fighting chance.” 

Cortes says governor’s race is wide open, especially if the media takes note of recently revealed allegations against Crowley.   

“If the legacy media in Wisconsin pursues the very serious allegations of a dirty payoff to David Crowley, this poll tells me the undecided and leaning voters will break for Tiffany and determine the race.”   

Milwaukee County gave $65 million to nonprofit, Community Advocates as federal rental aid. Crowley approved the distribution as county executive. The same year, his wife, Ericka Crowley, was hired at Community Advocates as a case manager. Since 2020, she has been the director of the Milwaukee Rental Housing Resource Center, which is closely connected to Community Advocates. 

Crowley has denied his wife’s employment played any role in the funding decisions, adding that the county has had a long-standing relationship with Community Advocates. 

Affordability, Affordability, Affordability 

“Affordability” has been a buzzword for the 2026 midterms. 

When asked in the survey, “Over the last year, has your personal financial situation improved, gotten worse, or stayed the same?” 47.5% voted it had gotten worse, 34.9% voted it had stayed the same, and 17.0% voted it had improved.  

The second financial question asked if participants believed their “financial situation would be better” if Kamala Harris was in office instead of Donald Trump. Votes were split with 40.9% choosing worse and 41.5% choosing better, while 11.3% decided that their situation would be about the same. 

Trump, Tightening Races and Turnout 

One question on which a slight majority agreed upon was, “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?” 51.9% said they strongly disapprove while the remaining voters were divided between strongly approve, somewhat approve, and somewhat disapprove. 

Cortes responded to this finding, saying, “Although President Trump remains overall unpopular, this poll verifies my most recent Arizona one, showing improving approval for Trump and tightening races overall.”  

Cortes stated, “This poll reinforces the overall theme that nearly every contested race is tied. In a photo finish, turnout operations will decide—who gets their supporters out, from right now for early voting, and into gameday itself?” 

NOTE: Hear further analysis from Cortes on Election Night, when he’ll join Victor Davis Hanson and other guests on The Tony Kinnett Cast. Kinnett will be hosting five hours of live and lively midterm election coverage, results, and analysis.

The show will be available on the Daily Signal’s YouTube channel. 

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