On the Ground in 3 Key States: Latest From Texas, Ohio, and Virginia

Virginia is one of the first states to open its polls, and I cast my ballot the day early voting began.

There’s a lot at stake this election year in the commonwealth, particularly Virginia’s proposed constitutional amendments on abortion and marriage. But Virginia is hardly alone among the states that will shape the direction of the country.

That’s why I invited three members of the Daily Signal’s State News Network to join me on the latest episode of “Midterm Report” to talk about the election news they’re tracking in the states they cover.

I spoke with Joe Thomas in Virginia, Rebecca Downs in Ohio, and Emily Medeiros in Texas. Our state team is now active in five states, covering both the policy debates in state capitals and the candidates who will determine control of Congress next year.

What struck me most was how often the three of them came back to the same point: The issues animating voters this year are intensely local and quite personal, and the candidates who tap into them will have the advantage. From data centers to immigration to the cost of living, those concerns vary from state to state.

“All politics are local,” Thomas said. “These are all local issues that these national candidates have to tap into because that’s where the motivation is going to be.”

Virginia’s Ballot Measures: Read the Fine Print

On his morning radio show and in his Daily Signal coverage, Thomas has been tracking the constitutional amendments on Virginia’s ballot, which have drawn opposition from the commonwealth’s two Catholic bishops and more than 200 pastors. They’ve voiced concern about the implications for expanding abortion throughout pregnancy and redefining marriage.

Thomas warned voters to pay close attention to the wording of the ballot questions. The Democrat-controlled General Assembly wrote the language, and Republicans, lacking a majority in either chamber, had no say.

>>> MORE THAN 200 VIRGINIA PASTORS SIGN LETTER OPPOSING CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS

“It is incredibly deceptive,” Thomas told me.

He noted that abortion and same-sex marriage are already legal in Virginia. So why are Democrats putting the amendments on the ballot? Thomas said they are designed to punish people who object or fail to comply, such as a doctor who won’t perform a late-term abortion.

He also sees a strategic purpose to boost Democrats. The amendments, Thomas said, are intended to make conservatives uncomfortable enough to stay home rather than vote no.

>>> A RARE MOVE BY A VIRGINIA BISHOP AHEAD OF ELECTION DAY

“It’s very important to look into the nerdy details of these ballot referendums because there’s so much more going on here than meets the eye,” he said.

The money gap is significant. Thomas noted that $2.8 million has flowed to the pro-abortion side of just one amendment, compared with $444,000 for the “vote no” campaign.

Ohio: Two Toss-Ups in a Red State

Downs is following two marquee races in Ohio, and she considers both toss-ups.

In the Senate special election, Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed by Gov. Mike DeWine to fill the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance, faces former Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown.

Brown lost to Sen. Bernie Moreno by about 3.6 points in 2024, a year President Donald Trump carried Ohio by roughly 11 points. In a midterm election year with a Republican in the White House, Brown has a chance to return to Washington.

The governor’s race pits former GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy against Democrat Amy Acton, the former state health director who led Ohio’s COVID-19 response. Downs said that record has hurt Acton.

Downs said the issue generating the most attention is data centers. Brown has hammered Husted over his ties to the industry, with ads effective enough to prompt a warning memo from the National Republican Senatorial Committee in August. Husted’s position is that decisions should be made locally. He’s also sponsoring legislation requiring data centers to pay their own way rather than pass costs to ratepayers.

>>> HOW WILL DATA CENTERS AFFECT OHIO’S ELECTIONS?

Downs is also tracking legislation from Husted and Moreno that would withhold federal funding from states that issue driver’s licenses to people who can’t prove legal status—a response to fatal crashes on Ohio roads.

In the weeks ahead, Downs will cover the contest between Democrat Rep. Marcy Kaptur and Republican Derek Merrin in Ohio’s 9th District, a recent federal appeals court ruling that lets Ohio require proof of citizenship from people registering to vote at the Bureau of Motor Vehicles, and Ohio Issue 3 that would enshrine voter ID in the state constitution.

Texas: Talarico Under Scrutiny

Medeiros is closely tracking the Senate race between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democrat state Rep. James Talarico, which she described as neck and neck.

Most recent polling has Talarico up slightly, although Medeiros is skeptical of those numbers. She said polls tend to underrepresent rural conservatives and reminded me that many predicted Beto O’Rourke would beat Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018.

Talarico has faced persistent questions about his religious beliefs, and last week brought a new one: undercover video released by Blaze Media of a pastor Talarico has called a mentor. Medeiros said the controversies could ultimately help Paxton.

>>> HIDDEN CAMERA CAPTURES PASTOR ADMIRED BY TALARICO CRITICIZING EVANGELICAL CHRISTIANS

She also questioned the Democrats’ claim that Texas isn’t a red state but a “non-voting” one. “It is very much still a red state,” she said. “I just think the Democrats are being extremely loud right now.”

Medeiros sees three issues motivating conservatives in Texas: H-1B visas, data centers, and the Islamification of parts of the state. She cited the roughly 50 mosques built in the Dallas-Fort Worth area over the past two years, and she’s covered a recall effort in McKinney that grew out of residents’ opposition to a mosque near a high school. Organizers say they’ve gathered about 6,500 signatures, exceeding the roughly 5,800 required. On data centers, she said water use is the top concern for rural Texans, particularly in Corpus Christi, which is nearing a water emergency.

She’ll also be watching South Texas congressional races reshaped by redistricting, including Rep. Henry Cuellar’s reelection bid.

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