Red or Purple State: Will the Midterms Determine Ohio’s Status?

Is Ohio returning to its former status as a purple state? Some seem to think it’s possible ahead of the midterm elections.

Ohio became a newly red state after decades of being a purple swing-state in the Midwest. Time will tell how red it really is.

“Angry Ohio Voters Could Turn Their State Purple Again,” said a recent headline for The New York Times. The noted that Ohio had recently become “an even deeper shade of red,” though it failed to examine how long it has held such a label.

Is it overblown hysteria? Maybe, but maybe not.

Former Republican Rep. Jim Renacci is referenced in the article for “flooding his Facebook page with dire warnings to his fellow conservatives.” He has a point in raising concerns about the cost of living and affordability, as well as the need to appeal to independents.

This year, both the governor’s race and the special election for U.S. Senate are regarded as “toss-up” races. Two of the 15 U.S. House races in Ohio are “toss-ups,” as well—one held by Democrat Rep. Marcy Kaptur of Ohio’s 9th District, and one held by Republican Rep. Max Miller of Ohio’s 7th District. Ohio’s 1st District, affected by redistricting to make it more favorable to Republicans, is “lean Democratic.”

As the Times piece states, “Come November, the state that once bragged ‘So goes Ohio, so goes the nation’ will find out if it is truly inching back toward purple.”

Ohio is quite the bellwether. If Republicans do poorly in Ohio, it won’t be looking good for the GOP across the country.

On his show Wednesday, Tony Kinnett, host of “The Tony Kinnett Cast, argued the midterms are “all about rallying the troops to come out.” That Ohio Democrat voters have spoken about encouraging turnout in “reliably blue Summit County” proves Kinnett’s point. The Times mentioned a postcard campaign encouraging voters to turn out for former Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, who lost to Republican Sen. Bernie Moreno in 2024 but is looking for a comeback against Sen. Jon Husted.

“While working families struggle, billionaires and MAGA politicians are cashing in,” postcards sent out to a targeted list all read. Such claims were prevalent throughout the article.

The piece closed with the story of 30-year-old Taylor Dupont, the mother of a fifth-grader, whose school district cut busing while she also experienced a job loss and rising costs. She blames “the president” and “the billionaires” for it.

“She said she planned to vote in the midterms for the first time, straight Democratic, but she hadn’t yet paid too much attention to any of the races,” the Times article added.

Although the op-ed lists gubernatorial nominee Vivek Ramaswamy’s billionaire status as a strike against him, the article also acknowledges rival Democrat Amy Acton’s baggage, as Ohio’s health director during COVID-19.

AlterNet, a left-wing outlet, seemed particularly excited by the lengthy Times article, declaring that “MAGA voters serve Trump a reckoning as red state turns purple.” This is predictable from the Left, but it may be making too much of it, especially when votes have yet to be cast or counted.

It’s possible that Republicans will win a mix of or all of these races in Ohio come November. There’s a unique excitement to “toss-up” races.

One aspect the Times did not discuss was the cash advantage. The Republican National Committee reported $128.5 million in cash on hand at the end of June, while the Democratic National Committee reported $16.3 million, though the latter has debt of about $18.5 million. Republicans are also hosting a midterm convention in Dallas, only weeks away.

Even if Ohio goes blue for 2026, that could also be the result of a midterm election year, as those tend to go poorly for the party of the president in power. Simply put, Ohio’s status is too early to call.

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