Sen. Tafoya? Minnesota Polling Shows a Dead Heat

Brand new polling from the heartland shows that the Democrats have a problem in the Gopher State.

Right now, Lt Gov. Peggy Flanagan has a slight 2-point lead, within the margin of error, at 40% vs. 38% for former sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya. The remaining voters responded 4% for independent candidate Marisa Simonetti, “other candidates” at 3%, and 14% of voters undecided.

Into the home stretch of campaign season, such a tight race in a normally safe Democrat bastion presents a big headache for national party operatives and donors.

Clearly, they will have to invest heavily to try to convince voters that radical Flanagan belongs in the U.S. Senate.

This poll by the League of American Workers hardly found some skewed right-wing sample.

Overall, President Donald Trump remains very unpopular, and the economic mood is morose in Minnesota. Specifically, Trump is 22 points underwater in this poll, with 36% approval and 58% disapproval. In addition, recall that no Republican has won Minnesota for the presidency since 1972, the longest such streak of one-party state dominance in America.

But in this populist era, throw out the political “rulebooks” and get ready to break a lot of assumptions regarding key races. For instance, being objective, could the GOP this year snatch a win for Senate in Minnesota, but lose in deep red Iowa next door?

Could the GOP similarly win in Michigan over extremist Islamist Abdul El-Sayed, but lose neighboring red Ohio? Those scenarios become more plausible now, and this poll reinforces that point.

Tafoya represents exactly the kind of candidate that works in this current political and media environment. A longtime popular sideline football TV reporter, she is known to legions of fans as one of the best, most skilled broadcasters in sports. Tafoya’s superb media skills were honed over decades on camera before truly record-breaking TV audiences.

So, she brings name recognition and a real “brand” as an outsider to politics, perfect for the current political paradigm. After her sports career, Tafoya launched a popular podcast and pivoted to culture and politics, proving that she’s a serious thinker on the most important topics that confront a U.S. senator. Moreover, her center-right worldview fits well with the current landscape of the Minnesota electorate.

For instance, even though Minnesota leans Democrat, voters there are unhappy with current Gov. Tim Walz. He is underwater in approval, 42%/46%, which is very unusual for a sitting governor. Walz stands at a terrible -14% among blue-collar voters without a college degree.

In general, governors poll very well, far better than federal officeholders, but not the embattled Walz. So, the more Tafoya ties Flanagan to her colleague Walz, the better.

In addition, Tafoya can highlight Flanagan’s radical record, such as supporting the permanent sex transitioning of children in Minnesota. Flanagan also called for the complete defunding of Immigration and Customs Enforcement and full citizenship for all illegal aliens in Minnesota.  

Another key topic jumps out of the data from this poll: widespread disapproval of mass Muslim migration to Minnesota. This poll replicated many of the findings in Michigan, where citizens have also become far more vocal and skeptical of mass Muslim migration to their state.

In Minnesota, for example, Rep. Ilhan Omar, a Democrat, remains deeply unpopular. Among her home state voters, only 28% are favorable on the Muslim Somali immigrant politician. More broadly, only 33% of Minnesota citizens believe that Somali immigration has “made Minnesota better.” When asked about successful assimilation of migrants, a whopping 77% say that Christian migrants “assimilate well,” vs. only 39% who say the same for Muslim migrants.

So, the more Flanagan is exposed as an open-borders radical who loves to don hijabs as a virtue signal, the better for the GOP in this very winnable race. Tafoya herself will probably not dive into this issue, and perhaps that’s for the best? But just like in Michigan, this topic is ripe for outside advocacy groups, and the bigger issue of Muslim migration could become a key “sleeper” issue for 2026 and beyond.

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