Shock Poll: GOP Challenger Edges Dem Governor In Deep-Blue State

A new poll has Republican Christine Drazan narrowly leading Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek in deep-blue Oregon, giving the GOP challenger a 2-point edge with less than two months to go before Election Day.

The Sept. 11 DHM Research survey of 600 likely voters in Oregon found Drazan leading Kotek 45% to 43%, with Pacific Green Party candidate Brett Smith clocking in at 4%. About 13% remain undecided, and Drazan’s lead falls within the 4-point margin of error.

The poll was conducted by Portland-based DHM Research for the business-backed group Grow Oregon, giving Republicans fresh hope of flipping the governor’s mansion in a state that has elected Democratic governors in every election since 1986.

“This poll confirms what we already see on the ground: Oregonians are ready for change, and they see Christine as the leader who can deliver it,” Trey Rosser, Drazan’s campaign strategist, told the Oregon Journalism Project. “Four years ago, Tina Kotek made big promises on homelessness, housing, education, and affordability, but today, Oregonians are paying more, getting less, and watching the same problems get worse.”

Despite the optimism, history — and political gravity — still pose significant challenges for Drazan. Oregon is a reliably blue state, and Kotek defeated Drazan in 2022, 47% to 43.5%, while independent candidate Betsy Johnson captured nearly 9% of the vote.

This time, the GOP hopes Green Party candidate Brett Smith can peel away some of Portland’s left-wing base angry with the status quo and the Democratic establishment, potentially helping Drazan capitalize on a divided Democratic vote.

The fresh poll also offers a snapshot of why Kotek could face a competitive reelection fight. Fifty-nine percent of respondents said they disapprove of her job performance, compared with 37% who approve, according to the Oregon Journalism Project. Nearly 60% said Oregon is headed in the wrong direction.

Affordability is top of mind for Oregon voters, with 87% saying it is an “extremely” or “very” important issue, followed by K-12 education at 85% and housing affordability at 78%. Despite the outcry over data centers, the issue ranks below several other concerns, with 50% of respondents calling it “extremely” or “very” important. Taxes and homelessness each registered at 77%, while 73% cited crime as a top concern.

Kotek has faced increasing criticism over several controversies during her first term, The Daily Wire previously reported. In 2024, public records revealed that her administration had explored creating a formal “Office of the First Spouse” for her wife, Aimee Kotek Wilson. Senior staff had raised concerns about the proposal, and Kotek ultimately abandoned plans for a formal office after public scrutiny.

At the same time, many of the priorities Kotek campaigned on in 2022 have shown little measurable progress. The governor pledged to dramatically increase housing production to address Oregon’s affordability crisis, setting a goal of building 36,000 new housing units annually. Instead, the state has continued to fall well short of that benchmark, The Daily Wire reported. 

The Cook Political Report rates the Oregon governor’s race as lean Democrat. 

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