The GOP’s worst defeat may be its best chance to move on

The 2026 midterms did more than punish Republicans. They rearranged the political fortunes of presidential hopefuls in both parties — and created some unexpected winners and losers, some with consequences for 2028.

Some changes were obvious on election night. Others became apparent only as the shock waves spread.

The sting is sharp, but the Band-Aid is off.

Losers

Start with Republicans. They entered November 3 holding the White House and both chambers of Congress, only to suffer a defeat that will shape their next two years and perhaps much longer.

The biggest loser, undoubtedly, was President Donald Trump. Midterms are almost invariably referendums on the president, with his party in Congress receiving the verdict. A Republican setback was expected. Its scale was not. The defeat will hamper Trump’s final two years in office, and its consequences for his political legacy may last much longer.

The Republican Party is the second-biggest loser. What a wave took may take another wave to return. Some Republicans who deserved to lose did. Plenty who did not deserve to lose went down with them. Democrats have a chance to turn this year’s gains into an enduring congressional advantage.

Republicans’ third-biggest loser is Vice President JD Vance. Before November, he seemed to have the inside track to Trump’s endorsement and, with it, the 2028 Republican nomination. Now he is tied to a crushing Republican defeat. He left a safe Ohio Senate seat to join Trump’s ticket; on November 3, Democrat Sherrod Brown won that seat from Republican Jon Husted. Instead of launching a presidential campaign from the Senate, Vance faces two years in an administration under siege.

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Democrats have losers too, though they may be harder to spot amid the party’s happiness hysteria.

At the top of that list is Kamala Harris. She spent much of 2025 on the sidelines and was scarcely more prominent in the midterm campaign. Democrats have now demonstrated that they can win big without her. In fact, they did considerably better without Harris in 2026 than they did with her at the top of the ticket in 2024.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom is another Democrat loser. His national profile no longer looks quite so indispensable when Democrats are winning in places far removed from California and its political baggage. His endorsement did not save Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass (D) from defeat. And his decision to commute the death sentences of all 548 people on California’s death row — a move requiring state Supreme Court approval in many cases — gives future opponents an obvious target. Newsom may find that his California record travels less well than he expects.

The third-biggest Democrat loser may be the Democratic Party itself. Impossible? Consider the democratic socialists, now more deeply entrenched in the party and more numerous in Congress. The more elections they win under that banner, the harder it becomes for party leaders to keep them from defining the national Democratic agenda.

Winners

The biggest winners, appropriately enough, are Democrats. They won up and down the ballot and across the country. Candidates captured offices they might never have imagined winning. Some will hold those offices for years, perhaps multiple terms, as incumbency gives them opportunities that were out of reach before November 3.

Second are the democratic socialists. They have penetrated the Democratic Party to an unprecedented degree. Their ranks in the House will more than double when the new Congress convenes. Democratic socialists already lead New York and Seattle; last week, candidates from the movement won mayoral elections in Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. The country’s two largest cities will soon have democratic socialist mayors.

Even in defeat, they made a showing: Angie Nixon lost Florida’s Senate race to Republican Ashley Moody by fewer than three percentage points.

Such results will make it harder for Democrat leaders to argue that socialist candidates cannot win. And the movement is unlikely to stop recruiting candidates while the victories keep coming.

The third-biggest Democrat winners are the party’s prospective 2028 presidential contenders — anyone not named Harris. They have just been handed a national victory to claim and a new political landscape in which to compete.

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Believe it or not, Republicans had winners too.

First are their prospective 2028 presidential contenders not named Vance. The Republican nomination looks more open than it did before the election, and more candidates are likely to enter. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Secretary of State Marco Rubio may find their positions strengthened as Republicans look for a way forward.

Next comes Florida. It held firm against the blue wave while Texas drowned. Both states have robust economies and deep Republican benches, but Florida now stands out as the party’s strongest large-state showcase. Byron Donalds’ victory in the governor’s race gives the GOP another rising figure to watch — and another reason for national Republicans to look south.

Finally, the Republican Party of 2028 may be a beneficiary of the very defeat it has just suffered. Win or lose, the party eventually had to move beyond Trump. A narrow midterm outcome would have made that reckoning easier to postpone. A rout did not. The sting is sharp, but the Band-Aid is off.

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