Trump Must Hold The Line On The Cuba Oil Embargo

The communist dictatorship in Cuba has never been closer to collapse. Thankfully, the cadre of leftist American activists and influencers that descended on Havana this week will not be able to save it. While the island endured its second total electrical grid collapse in a matter of days, the regime welcomed a delegation of limousine socialists from the United States. They quickly pulled out their phones, merging grotesque voyeuristic slum tourism with propagandistic livestreams from their five-star, regime-owned hotel. As their diesel generators hummed, the rest of the country starved in the dark.

The good news? This is late-stage communism. Cuba’s 67-year-old experiment with Marxist ideology could finally end if the Trump administration avoids the traps of negotiation and holds the line on its successful oil embargo. It would be a historic accomplishment for Trump 2.0, and petroleum is the key.

Margaret Thatcher famously observed that the problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people’s money. This is happening in real time in present-day Cuba: The government has run out of other people’s oil. It scraped by for decades on Venezuelan crude shipments, using Venezuela’s oil imports to generate electricity, which is the least efficient task imaginable. This imported crude is in addition to the 25,000 barrels of oil per day that the regime pumps for itself.

The ouster of Nicolás Maduro and President Trump’s total oil embargo have set a countdown clock for the regime. The punishment will continue; the power outages will get worse. What’s more, they presage a breakdown in the paltry benefits the regime still offers.

Decades ago, Bernie Sanders infamously claimed that bread lines were “a good thing” because they meant that the poor were not starving. Eventually, he argued, people received bread. The 2026 energy shortage in Cuba has given that interpretation a new, grim twist. Limited gasoline for transportation and power for baking means that there will be less bread for the bread lines.

As President Trump recently noted, “They have no energy. They have no money. They’re in deep trouble.” Trump is correct.

Deputy Cuban Foreign Minister Fernández de Cossío declared that the oil blockade “cannot be sustained forever.” The regime is obviously betting that the White House will eventually cave and let foreign tankers arrive in Cuban ports. This should not happen, since it will extend the lifespan of this regime once more.

Conditions on the ground are ripe for public unrest not seen since Cuba’s nationwide protests in July 2021. Unlike the previous unrest due to blackouts, however, the regime no longer has a Venezuelan patron to bail them out. Their current strategy is to play for time.

Here’s what we do next:

The administration must hold the line on the current oil embargo. The Cuban regime has learned how to manipulate public opinion by claiming that an end to the U.S. embargo will end the poverty of the Cuban people. In reality, it is the regime’s communist economic policies that have made them poor. It is why the cavalcade of socialist influencers has backfired on the government.

By showcasing the desperate poverty of the Cuban people and retreating to their hotel rooms to broadcast their support for the regime from a swanky 42-story high-rise, the woke circus of the “Stop the Siege” campaign inadvertently showed the disconnect between the luxury of communist elites and the people they imprison.

Next, the administration should not accept the “Venezuelan model” for Cuba. Simply replacing a few leaders at the top will not cure the island’s woes.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio seems to understand this, recently declaring that Cuba’s current leaders “can’t fix it,” namely, the economy. This is accurate. It is also why asking for a change in management at the top will not work.

Cuba needs a fundamental restructuring, similar to Central Europe after 1989.

As we learned from successful post-communist countries in Europe, gradual reforms lead to corruption and take too long to yield the desired results. Conversely, rapid changes shock the system into embracing free-market mechanisms that have not existed for decades. Poland and the Czech Republic are the shining examples of this rapid teardown and rebuilding.

Lastly, President Trump can and should do more to use the bully pulpit of his presidency to encourage the Cuban people. Ultimately, they cannot be “given” freedom; they must use the regime’s weakness to seize their own national destiny. Trump has the loudest megaphone in the world; he should use it to remind everyday Cubans that America is waiting to make the island rich through trade, investment, and most importantly, energy.

Because none of this can happen while the current regime remains in power, the White House should fully embrace a straightforward idea: “Viva Cuba libre.”

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Peter Doran is a Senior Adjunct Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He previously served as a Foreign Affairs Fellow for Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and later served with the Cuba Development Initiative at the OAS.

The views expressed in this piece are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The Daily Wire.