What Vance’s RNC Speech Reveals About 2028

Vice President JD Vance’s speech at the Republican National Committee’s Midterm Convention was not a formal kickoff to an expected 2028 presidential campaign. But a close look at what he said suggests that, informally, in some respects, that’s exactly what it was.

Vance did not mention his rumored campaign, but he didn’t exactly deny that one was on the way. He brushed off chants of “48” by saying, “We gotta take care of business this November, then we can worry about what comes next.”

If Vance runs, he must perform a difficult trick all vice presidents seeking to follow their boss must do: paint himself as an heir to the president’s legacy while also differentiating himself from the unpopular policies of the administration. In this case, most prominently, the Iran war. 

Vance sought to accomplish this by suggesting Americans should not get lost in the specifics of the last 18 months, but to be like his friend Charlie Kirk and zoom out to view upcoming midterm elections as a battle between common sense and radicalism. 

“Charlie hated war,” Vance said. “Whether it was Europe or Africa or the Middle East, he didn’t care. He just hated war.

“But what I’m asking you to do is, do what Charlie did. Do not throw the baby out with the bathwater” of specific administration policies voters oppose, he continued. 

Vance eloquently reframed the midterms—and in doing so, perhaps the 2028 election—not as a referendum on issues like the Iran war, but as a choice between “giving the country over to a bunch of crazy people” or four more years of protecting the American dream.  

“Look, I’m not asking anybody to agree with me on every single issue,” Vance said, notably referring to himself and not the president. “I’m not asking anybody to agree on every single policy of the administration. What I am asking you to do is to recognize the contrast with the radicals and recognize the achievements of the last 18 months.”

Vance is betting on Trump’s wins, like border security, booting men from women’s sports, creating jobs, and lowering drug prices, tacitly asking voters to focus on these policies rather than war, the construction of the ballroom, or Trump’s controversial new plan to give every American adult $5,000, that latter two of which he didn’t even mention. 

Vance made it clear that a vote for a Democrat is not what it used to be. 

“I’m here to tell you this is who the Democrats are now, my friends, they’re not just the party of a little higher taxes, maybe some dumb regulations,” he said. “They’re not the party of FDR or JFK. Hell! They’re not even the party of Bill Clinton anymore. The Democrats are the party of hatred. They’re the party that despises America and the people who built it.”

That’s a strong message for the midterms. And it will work just as well in 2028.

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