A Special Election In Trump’s Backyard Shows What’s At Stake For Republicans

A Democrat flipped a solidly red Florida state House seat Tuesday in a special election held in President Donald Trump’s home district.

Democrat candidate Emily Gregory defeated Republican Jon Maples in a district that includes Mar-a-Lago, winning 51.19% of the vote to Maples’ 48.81%. County data showed Gregory had a significant lead through mail-in voting, while Maples held a slight edge in early in-person turnout. 

The special election was triggered after former Rep. Mike Caruso, a Republican, left office to become Palm Beach County Clerk. Caruso had won his last election by 19 points, while Trump carried the district by about 10 points. 

Trump, who cast his ballot by mail, endorsed Maples on Monday night. 

“There is a very important Special Election tomorrow, Tuesday, March 24th, for Florida State House District 87 in beautiful Palm Beach County — JON MAPLES HAS MY COMPLETE AND TOTAL ENDORSEMENT!” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Jon is a very successful Businessman and Civic Leader, who is known and loved, and also endorsed by so many of my Palm Beach County friends.”

Immediately after Gregory’s victory became evident, the Democratic National Committee quickly moved to fundraise off the party’s win, calling the result a “humiliating defeat” for President Trump. 

“Americans are furious with Trump and his cronies for jacking up costs, ripping away their health care, and working in the interests of their billionaire donors instead of the people they’re supposed to serve,” one fundraising email said. “The message here is loud and clear: If Democrats can win in Trump’s own backyard, we can win anywhere.”

Gregory, who positioned herself as a moderate Democrat, was endorsed by several local leftist activist groups. On her campaign website, she called for increased government spending on “affordable housing,” healthcare, and education. 

Republicans downplayed the loss, pointing to the typical low turnout and unpredictable nature of special elections.  

“A low-turnout state House special election is a snapshot of local quirks, candidate dynamics, and turnout math — not some grand verdict,” said Republican National Committee senior adviser Danielle Alvarez.

Despite the upset, Republicans still have a dominant majority in the Florida House, holding 84 seats to the Democrats’ 34. In other Florida races on Tuesday, Republican Hilary Holley defeated Democrat Edwin Perez to retain a state House seat, while Democrat Brian Nathan narrowly edged out Josie Tomkow in a state Senate contest.