Alaska’s ‘Decoy Dan’ Mess Isn’t Over And The Next Count Could Change Everything

Democrat Alaska Senate candidate Mary Peltola increased her lead over incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan following the latest vote drop as counting continues to drag on in the critical race. 

Vote totals updated Tuesday show Peltola leading Sullivan by 4,250 votes with an estimated 84% of the vote counted one week after Election Day. Peltola’s lead is only slightly larger than the number of votes received by Dan J. Sullivan, a so-called independent candidate reportedly recruited by Democrat operatives to confuse voters. 

The second Sullivan, referred to by Republicans as “Decoy Dan,” received 4,027 votes while another self-identified Republican candidate, Gerald Heikes, received 5,318 votes. Heikes was also reportedly recruited by an unidentified Midwestern political operative to launch a campaign, and President Donald Trump accused him of being backed by Democrats. 

The outcome of the race will determine the size of the Democratic majority when the party takes control of the Senate in January, following victories in historically Republican states including South Carolina, Kansas, and Texas.

Peltola, whose campaign has faced accusations of helping recruit “Decoy Dan,” claimed the latest totals showed the Democrat would win decisively. 

“Once again, today’s ballot drop makes it abundantly clear that Mary is on her way to a decisive victory, and there is not a viable path to reelection for Senator Sullivan,” Peltola campaign manager Cheryl Bruce said after the latest vote update. 

The next deadline to watch will be November 13, when all domestic mail-in ballots sent by Election Day must be received. That same day, the Alaska Division of Elections will give another update on the count. 

On November 18, a final official count will be issued, including mail-in ballots received from Alaskans living abroad. If no candidate has received over 50% of the vote by then, ranked-choice tabulation will begin. Currently, Peltola has about 49% of the vote, and Sullivan has 47.2%. 

The incumbent Sullivan released a memo after Election Day arguing that both the outstanding ballots left to be counted and the ranked-choice system would have led to him being re-elected. He expected most of the early voting yet to be counted to break his way. The Republican’s campaign remained confident on Monday that he would hold on in the end. 

The Justice Department asked a federal court last month to be prepared to delay certification of the election if the inclusion of the second Sullivan confused voters and cost the incumbent the victory. The delay would allow for an investigation into whether voters were thrown off by the appearance of two Dan Sullivans on the ballot. A federal court dismissed the lawsuit, but the Trump administration has appealed. 

Some voters already reported being unsure of which Sullivan they voted for when asked after casting their ballot.

Democrat gubernatorial candidate Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, endorsed by Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski, is currently leading top Republican candidate Bernadette Wilson, but has not yet topped 50% of the vote. 

Counting in another Senate race is still going on in Mississippi, where Democrat Scott Colom holds a narrow lead over incumbent Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith. Colom appears poised to flip the seat with only a few days left for outstanding mail-in ballots to be accepted.

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