GINGRICH: How To Win The War In Iran

It seems the United States is at war with Iran’s religious dictatorship.

Starting the war was the right thing to do. But it is important to remember that starting a war is only the first step towards winning a war.

The United States has learned this lesson before.

In Korea, we fought to a tie. In Vietnam, we lost after a long, painful war that cost more than 55,000 American lives and brought a wave of refugees to America. In Iraq, we defeated Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship only to be bogged down in an arduous struggle for control.

In Afghanistan, we fought for 22 years and lost.

To win the campaign against the Iranian regime, we must think through the endgame to ensure we have understood the necessary components of winning. The key lies not in defeating the Iranian dictatorship, but in replacing it.

Bombing can do a fair amount to make the Iranian dictatorship more vulnerable, but winning the war will require occupying the ground. However, for President Donald Trump to hold his political coalition together, it is crucial the United States not commit ground forces to Iran.

Frankly, this is also a matter of prudence. Iran is more than twice the size of Texas and home to 90 million people. There is no circumstance in which the United States should attempt to occupy that much land — or police that many people.

As we learned in Iraq, when Americans are too close in proximity to the local population, there is a good chance our presence will irritate the locals and make success more difficult.

So, to effectively replace the Iranian dictatorship, we must mobilize the Iranian people.

One asset we have to this end is the Iranian community in the United States and Europe. There are between 500,000 and one million Iranians living in the United States. Many of them fled when the religious dictatorship replaced the Shah. Because so many of the Iranians who came to America were well educated and hard working, they have generally been successful. The Sunday Guardian listed 10 wealthy Iranians in America whose combined worth exceeds $27 billion.

There are several organizations that have organized against the religious dictatorship. Maryam Rajavi and Reza Pahlavi, son of the Shah, are two examples of leaders who have large followings and could play a significant role in organizing the Iranian people to replace the mullahs.

Bing West has suggested we simply drop a million rifles into the country and allow the people to liberate themselves. The Kurds in the northern part of Iran are already well organized. As the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps is destroyed by airpower, the Kurds will be serious contenders for power in their region.

When you remember that Persians constitute about 61% of the Iranian population, there are clearly large elements with no loyalty to Tehran who could be mobilized.

The United States and its allies can do a lot to break up the dictatorship. However, we should be incredibly disciplined in keeping our commitment to airpower, weapons, and money — while insisting that all ground fighting be done by the Iranian people. Let them liberate their own country, and in the process earn the right to form a free, open government inclusive of all the elements of Iranian society.

Winning the war is much more important than starting it. We need to focus on the steps necessary to replace the dictatorship — not just the steps necessary to destroy it.

Newt Gingrich was Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives from 1995-1999 and a candidate for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination. He is chairman of Gingrich 360.