Here’s How Ohio Republicans Fare Ahead of Election, According to Top Pollster

The flurry of polls has increased as Election Day approaches, with Ohio having many “toss-up” races. Despite concerns about how accurate the forecasts are, polls coming out of the Buckeye State are showing that the election could produce many nail-biter contests.

On Saturday, The New York Times/Siena College poll on battlegrounds was released, showing a shift in whom Ohio voters are supporting for senator and governor.

Based on a sample of 616 likely voters in Ohio, former Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown leads Republican Sen. Jon Husted 49% to 46%.

Brown enjoys support from 95% of those who voted for Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, while Husted has support from 87% of those who voted for then-candidate Donald Trump, according to the poll. Interestingly, 61% of Brown supporters said they did not vote in 2024.

With the New York Times/Siena College poll included, RealClearPolling has Brown with an advantage of +3.1, down slightly from +3.7 last Wednesday.

Dr. Amy Acton, formerly Ohio’s director of health during the COVID-19 pandemic and now the Democrat nominee for governor, also fares better than her Republican opponent, Vivek Ramaswamy.

While 49% of the 616 likely voters support Acton, 45% support Ramaswamy. Again, Harris’ voters from 2024 are more likely to support the Democrat than Trump’s voters are likely to support Ramaswamy, at 92% and 84%, respectively. Acton enjoys 11% support from 2024 Trump supporters, while 59% of Acton’s supporters did not vote for president in 2024.

With the New York Times/Siena College poll included, RealClear Polling has Acton with a +4.2 lead over Ramaswamy, up from the +3.0 lead from last Wednesday.

Each race is within the margin of error, at plus or minus 4.5 to 5.5 percentage points. The poll was conducted Sept. 22-Oct. 1.

Overall, the poll included 48% of likely Ohio voters who voted for Trump, 41% who voted for Harris, and 6% who did not vote.

The poll also asked how likely voters in Ohio felt about Trump’s handling of gas prices, with 79%-20% saying they disapprove versus approve. Some 64% say they “strongly disapprove.”

“Half of Republicans in Iowa—and nearly half of Republicans in Ohio and Kansas—disapprove of the president’s handling of gas prices. Across all other issues, in every other state polled, Republicans did not come anywhere close to this level of disapproval,” The New York Time noted in a midterm updates article.

Ohio’s Republican and Democrat leaders seem to be cognizant of gas price concerns. Last week, the state Legislature voted on a 90-day gas tax suspension. Gov. Mike DeWine, R-Ohio, signed it into law on Thursday.

Although the poll shows good news for Brown and Acton, especially compared to previous months, the race has about a month to go.

On X, Echelon Insights’ Patrick Ruffini has been noting that Ohio is among the states where Republicans are tough to reach for polling. He’s also documented the poll miss in the Buckeye State.

Siena College, in February 2024, promoted its top pollster rating from FiveThirtyEight.com. Activote, in March 2025, included NYT/Siena as the 18th-ranked pollster among 136 pollsters for 2024.

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