Meet The Blue State Senate Candidate Giving Dems Heartburn

A sleeper Senate race in New Hampshire is throwing a wrench in Democrats’ plan to flip the upper chamber. 

Former Republican Sen. John Sununu’s comeback bid to Congress is gaining momentum, breathing new life into the GOP’s hopes to maintain control of the Senate during a challenging election season for the party up and down the ballot.

Quiet Democratic anxiety has been mounting for weeks in the Granite State. It burst into the open after Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas’ campaign sounded the alarm in a blunt message to supporters: “We’re losing.”

The warning – wrapped in an urgent fundraising message – came as polling showed Sununu jumping ahead. An August poll from the University of New Hampshire found Sununu leading 45% to 43%, a surprising result that shifted one major national election forecaster.

The Cook Political Report moved the open-seat race from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss Up,” citing the tightening political environment and the significant sums national Republicans have poured into the sparsely populated state.

It remains an uphill climb for Republicans to pick up a seat in a state Kamala Harris won by three points, and the polls overall reflect that: Pappas leads by about six in the RCP polling average. But in addition to the UNH finding, September polls from co/efficient and the New York Times/Siena have him tied and within the margin of error, respectively.

“We concede that it could still move back in Democrats’ direction before Election Day,” Jessica Taylor, editor at Cook, said in a statement. “The central question in the race is whether Sununu’s brand is enough to escape the anchor of a deeply unpopular President Donald Trump — perhaps also with the help of Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte’s strong showing atop the ticket.”

But Michael Dennehy, a longtime New Hampshire Republican strategist, is even more bullish on Sununu’s standing in the state.

“Well, I see it as a 100% toss-up,” Dennehy said in an interview with The Daily Wire. “People of New Hampshire love him. They know him, and that, I think, automatically has thrust him into a 50-50 race.”

It’s a rare bright spot for the GOP in a cycle in which Democrats have also mounted strong challenges in traditionally Republican territory, including Iowa, Alaska, Ohio, and Texas. Some political insiders have already written off North Carolina and Georgia.

“It’s pretty dire circumstances in both those states,” political consultant Ryan Girdusky told The Daily Wire, pointing to the Iran conflict and inflation. “And it’s not likely that the Republicans will manage to carry either one of them in November, and that’s bad for the GOP, but that’s just the facts on the ground.”

New Hampshire, on the other hand, is emerging as a prime pickup opportunity that could help prevent President Trump from losing a critical political backstop during his final two years in power.

“The Sununu name is independent of Trump, so it’s not like people hear Sununu and they think, oh, it’s a Trump fanboy. The Sununu name is its own independent thing that exists even outside of normal Republican politics, and I think that matters quite a bit,” Girdusky said. 

Sununu’s Political Comeback

Sununu’s late-summer surge has less to do with the politics of the day and more to do with his last name. The Republican, who is emphasizing an independent approach to polarized politics, is hardly the new kid on the block. He served three terms in the U.S. House from 1997 to 2003 before serving as a U.S. senator from 2003 to 2009. He is also the son of former New Hampshire Gov. John H. Sununu and the brother of former Gov. Chris Sununu.

Since leaving office, Sununu has largely worked in the private sector — a record Democrats are now using to attack his Senate comeback. In a new ad, a super PAC aligned with Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) accuses Sununu of “selling out” after leaving Washington, saying, “After voting for special interests, he got kicked out of the Senate and spent the next 15 years cashing in.”

Sununu, meanwhile, is pitching his return as an antidote to what he sees as a dramatically changed Washington.

“It’s been a while since you elected me to serve New Hampshire, and boy, have things changed,” Sununu says in a campaign ad. “Now Congress just seems loud, dysfunctional, even angry. But Granite Staters still talk. We don’t always agree, but we respect one another and work together for the common good.”

New Hampshire is a small state, with about 1.4 million residents and roughly 9,000 square miles of land, but its political influence has long extended well beyond its size. The state’s first-in-the-nation presidential primary has made New Hampshire a regular stop for presidential candidates and a high-stakes training ground for national heavy hitters.

For the 2026 midterms, however, Sununu is leaning on good old-fashioned campaigning to win over New Hampshire voters.

“Obviously, the size of New Hampshire is a perfect environment for someone who is very good at retail campaigning, and that’s been another strength of Johnny Sununu’s. In fact, I bumped into him recently at a car show,” Dennehy told The Daily Wire. “He just likes campaigning.”

That hands-on approach is backed by something else Sununu has had for years: an established presence in New Hampshire politics.

“I think it’s important to note that Johnny Sununu was the second Sununu to make a name for himself,” Dennehy said, pointing to his ability to connect with New Hampshire voters. “So he created his own destiny and was very successful in Congress and in the Senate, so voters in New Hampshire remember him.”

Sununu is betting that his independent persona can defy the political headwinds facing Republicans this cycle. Trump has performed poorly across much of the Northeast, opening the door for Sununu to carve out his own political identity in a state known for ticket-splitting. It hasn’t gone Republican for president since 2000, but the GOP has won two Senate elections and six gubernatorial races since then. 

“Maybe you’re surprised to hear that I’m running for the Senate again. I’m a bit surprised,” Sununu said in his calm campaign launch, backdropped by scenic views of the state. “Why would anyone subject themselves to everything going on there right now? Well, somebody has to step up and lower the temperature,” he said. 

Republican Money Floods New Hampshire

The race’s growing competitiveness is reflected in the amount of GOP-backed money flooding into New Hampshire. Trump’s political operation has poured millions into the Senate contest, with the newly created No Going Back PAC reserving more than $9 million in advertising.

Much of the outside spending is focused on defining Pappas as a liberal who is out of touch with New Hampshire voters. One Trump-aligned attack targets Pappas over healthcare, accusing him of voting to “line the pockets of health insurers with billions of tax dollars” and against “vital funding for rural and vulnerable hospitals.” Republicans’ Senate campaign arm has separately attacked Pappas over his voting record and legislative record.

“Chris Pappas has put the needs of Chuck Schumer and D.C. Democrats over what is best for Granite Staters every step of the way,” National Republican Senatorial Committee Regional Press Secretary Samantha Cantrell previously told The Daily Wire. “While Pappas is a follower, John Sununu is the independent leader New Hampshire needs.”

The spot rips Pappas over taxes and his voting record before concluding: “John Sununu spent his career solving problems. Chris Pappas followed the crowd. New Hampshire needs a leader, not a lightweight. John Sununu: Tough. Independent. New Hampshire first.”

It highlights the all-hands-on-deck approach to flipping a seat and preserving the Republican majority. The Cook Political Report reported that the Senate Leadership Fund has spent or booked roughly $12.7 million in the state. 

“Even in a light blue state, the amount of money national Republicans have dedicated to this race is a flashing red light for Democrats,” Taylor with Cook said.

Dennehy told The Daily Wire that the heavy GOP investment in a relatively inexpensive state that nevertheless includes the costly Boston media market is a strong tell of where the wind is blowing.

“And I think that statistic right there is probably the most telling because it makes it literally one of the top races in the country to flip. Quite possibly the best race in the country to flip,” he said.

Ayotte’s Role

Incumbent Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte is another factor shaping New Hampshire’s political landscape. A former U.S. senator, Ayotte returned to the governor’s office in 2025 and is now the highest-profile Republican elected official on the ballot this fall.

Her reelection campaign could also have implications for Sununu. The August University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll found 49% of likely voters approving of her job performance, compared with 42% who disapproved. The poll also found Ayotte leading Democratic nominee Cinde Warmington by double digits. 

New Hampshire Republicans hope history will repeat itself this cycle. Dennehy pointed to the 1992 election, when Republican Steve Merrill won the governor’s race with 56% of the vote while Republican Judd Gregg narrowly won his first U.S. Senate campaign with 48%.

Dennehy, who was working in New Hampshire politics at the time, said Merrill’s strong performance helped drag Gregg over the top in a turbulent political year that featured George H.W. Bush’s re-election bid, Ross Perot’s independent campaign, and Bill Clinton’s eventual victory.

Now, Dennehy hopes Ayotte’s popularity could be the piece that completes the political puzzle for Sununu.

“I can see where that scenario could play out here in New Hampshire this year,” Dennehy said.

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