Oil-Rich Alberta Could Hold Independence Vote This October

Alberta separatists said Monday they have collected more than enough signatures to force a referendum on whether the oil-rich province should split away from Canada.

Stay Free Alberta needed 178,000 signatures to put the referendum on the ballot. It claims to have garnered 302,000.

Mitch Sylvestre, the group’s head, led a convoy of seven trucks Monday to deliver the signatures to the Elections Alberta office in Edmonton.

“This day is historic in Alberta history,” Sylvestre said. “It’s the first step to the next step—we’ve gotten by round three and now we’re in the Stanley Cup final.”

The separation question could appear on a ballot as early as October, as Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has said she would proceed if enough names are gathered and verified. Sylvestre said most papers were handled five times to verify the signatures.

“It was a lot of work and it was full-time work for four months,” Sylvestre told media at the Elections Alberta office. “We’re happy with the number.”

The question on the ballot would be simple: “Do you agree that the Province of Alberta should cease to be a part of Canada to become an independent state?”

What Is Alberta’s Beef?

Alberta has long complained of unfair treatment at the hands of the Canadian government. For example, Alberta contributes far more in federal taxes than it receives back, leading to accusations Canada treats Alberta as a “cash cow.”

“What we’re looking at is the broken and dysfunctional system that has been in place since Alberta joined Confederation,” Cameron Davies of the separatist organization Alberta Prosperity Project told CBC News.

He claims the system was designed to consolidate power in the eastern part of the country and Western Canada was “viewed as nothing more than a resource colony” for Ottawa.

Although Smith personally does not support separation, the premier has accused previous federal Liberal governments of introducing legislation that hampers Alberta’s ability to produce and export oil, which she said has cost the province billions of dollars. Smith also said she doesn’t want the federal government meddling in provincial issues, according to the Associated Press.

The more conservative Alberta also does not see eye-to-eye with the federal government on such issues as individual liberty, gun rights and economic policy.

A “yes” vote would not immediately trigger independence, as negotiations with the federal government would be required.

However, the success of the initiative is far from certain.

Challenges Facing the Separation Movement

Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University, said a referendum is likely to lose.

“Right now, support for independence in Alberta is rather low. Less than 30% and much lower if we only focus on hard core supporters. And the odds of a victory of the pro-independence camp appear to be low at this stage,” he told the Associated Press.

Another factor working against the referendum is that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is more popular than former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

“Mark Carney is indeed popular, even in Alberta. The push for independence by some Albertans predates his prime ministership and it’s related to economic, fiscal, and political grievances about the seemingly unfair treatment of Alberta by the federal government,” Béland said. “These concerns increased during the Justin Trudeau years, but they have peaked and even declined since he left office.”

The separatist effort also faces resistance from some Indigenous groups. This week, an Edmonton judge is expected to rule on a court challenge by Alberta First Nations, who say the province’s separation would violate treaty rights.

However, Stay Free Alberta lawyer Jeff Rath is not worried about the legal challenges because the premier has the authority to move forward with the referendum when the signatures are verified.

“As far as we’re concerned,” Rath said, “whatever the court does or whatever Elections Alberta does at this point is meaningless.”