The Election Issue Few Pollsters Are Talking About

Dearborn, Michigan, a suburb of Detroit, was once known as the birthplace of Henry Ford and home of Ford Motor Co.’s headquarters.

Today it proudly boasts the title “Arab Capital of America,” with the highest concentration of Arab Americans in the United States. In 2023, it officially became the country’s first majority-Arab city, with about 55% of the population identifying as having Middle Eastern or North African ancestry.

That also makes Dearborn home to a large Muslim population, similar to neighboring Hamtramck. There are 11 mosques within the city limits of Dearborn and more than 100 in the greater Detroit area.

Dearborn is the focus of a forthcoming documentary produced by Steve Cortes, a Daily Signal contributor who traveled to Michigan ahead of this year’s key U.S. Senate election between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers. El-Sayed is vying to become the first Muslim elected to the Senate.

Cortes, a pollster who founded the League of American Workers, spoke with me about the Michigan race on the latest episode of the Daily Signal’s “Midterm Report” podcast. We also discussed the issues shaping Wisconsin’s gubernatorial election, Maine’s closely watched U.S. Senate race, and why it’s important for conservatives to vote early.

Michigan: The Impact of Muslim Migration

According to Cortes, the Michigan race remains highly competitive, though his polling currently shows El-Sayed with a narrow advantage.

“Right now in the polling, what we see is El-Sayed in my latest polling up by four,” Cortes said. “Most Michigan citizens, unless they’re sort of hardcore Democratic voters, don’t know very much about Abdul El-Sayed.”

Cortes said his documentary examines what he describes as dramatic demographic and cultural changes in communities such as Dearborn, Hamtramck, and Warren.

“When people think of Dearborn, if they know it, they might know it by Ford Motor Co.,” Cortes said. “This sort of quintessential industrial American town has been overtaken by mass Muslim migration.”

>>> US MUSLIMS GAINING POLITICAL POWER

Cortes said polling conducted by his organization found significant concern among Michigan voters regarding immigration and assimilation.

“When I poll this issue and I ask, ‘Is there too much Muslim mass migration?’ by a six-to-one margin, six-to-one, they say too much Muslim mass migration,” Cortes explained.

He argued that many voters are concerned Muslim immigrants are not integrating into American culture.

“People have quite sensibly said, ‘Wait a second, they’re not assimilating. They don’t agree with our values, don’t agree with our Constitution,'” Cortes said.

The documentary includes footage from Dearborn and surrounding communities that Cortes believes will surprise many Americans unfamiliar with the region.

“I think a lot of Americans are going to say, ‘Wait a second, is this good for our country?'” Cortes said.

Despite his concerns, Cortes believes the Senate race remains fluid and says Republican voters still have an opportunity to persuade undecided voters.

“I do believe [El-Sayed] is in the lead, but I think over the coming weeks we’re going to reverse that situation,” Cortes said of the Democrat’s polling lead.

Wisconsin: A Tight Governor’s Race

Michigan isn’t the only battleground state drawing Cortes’ attention. He has also spent considerable time in neighboring Wisconsin, where Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany is running for governor against Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley.

According to Cortes, voter frustration over education and property taxes is becoming a major issue in the race.

“In poll after poll, I find that Wisconsinites are extremely angry, extremely anxious about these soaring property taxes,” Cortes said. “But what are they getting for it? Well, they’re getting a worse and worse outcome, particularly regarding education.”

Cortes pointed to reading proficiency rates in Wisconsin schools, arguing that voters are increasingly questioning whether they are receiving adequate results for the taxes they pay.

>>> DATA CENTER BACKLASH UPENDS SWING STATE GOVERNOR’S RACE

He has also produced a documentary highlighting crime and immigration issues in Fond du Lac, Wisconsin, a small city between Milwaukee and Green Bay.

“I was frankly shocked to learn just how much really violent illegal alien crime is happening in Wisconsin, someplace really far from the U.S.-Mexico border,” Cortes said. “This very pleasant middle-class community has seen truly horrific illegal alien crimes.”

Cortes said polling suggests the governor’s race remains highly competitive.

“I show that it is effectively tied,” he said of the contest between Tiffany and Crowley.

Maine: A Closely Watched Senate Race

Cortes also believes immigration and assimilation concerns could have an impact in Maine’s Senate race, where Republican Sen. Susan Collins is seeking reelection against Democrat Troy Jackson.

He recently traveled to Lewiston, Maine, for another documentary examining the city’s sizable Somali immigrant population and its effect on the community.

“A lot of people know about Michigan,” Cortes said. “But not Maine. People do not think of Somalis in Maine.”

>>> DOCUMENTARY SHOWS HOW MASS MUSLIM MIGRATION TAKES ADVANTAGE OF AMERICA

According to Cortes, the changes in Lewiston could become a significant campaign issue as voters weigh the future direction of the state.

“Lewiston, Maine, was traditionally a mill town settled mainly by French Catholics,” he said. “They completely changed the character of the town.”

Cortes argued that concerns about immigration, assimilation, and government spending could ultimately help Collins prevail.

“I think it’s going to be one of the reasons that Susan Collins is going to ultimately prevail,” he said. “I think the citizens of Maine who take a look at Lewiston are going to say, ‘Yeah, this isn’t a good idea for us.'”

Why Conservatives Should Vote Early

Beyond individual races, Cortes urged conservatives to embrace early voting, arguing that Republicans can no longer afford to wait until Election Day.

“The only way to do that is to win and to win under the current rules,” Cortes said. “And the best way to win under the current rules is to vote early.”

While many conservatives remain skeptical of early voting, Cortes said banking votes before Election Day creates strategic advantages for campaigns.

“The earlier you vote, the less money that organizations like mine and affiliate organizations spend chasing your vote,” he explained.

Democrats have gained an advantage by turning out supporters well before Election Day, he said, allowing campaigns to focus resources on persuading and mobilizing additional voters.

Using a football analogy, Cortes compared Republicans’ traditional strategy to intentionally spotting their opponents a significant lead.

“It doesn’t make sense for us to every time say we’re going to go into the fourth quarter and we’re going to just surrender a 20-point lead because we know we can score three touchdowns in the fourth quarter,” he said.

“If your state offers early in-person voting, take advantage of it,” Cortes added. “That’s what I do, it’s what Ned Ryan does, and that is the best way for us to be competitive in elections.”

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