Why Republican Redistricting In South Texas Could Spell Midterm Troubles

Republicans’ decision to redraw congressional districts in South Texas last year could spell trouble for the party in the upcoming midterm elections if Latino voters in the region shift their support.

Latino voters in South Texas concerned about the border crisis under then-President Joe Biden helped secure President Donald Trump’s victory in 2024, but they are beginning to sour on Republicans ahead of the midterms, according to recent polling. The Texas Legislature, instructed by Trump, redrew the state’s congressional map last year believing the support would endure.

It appears that support may instead be dwindling.

Hispanic voters in three congressional districts in South Texas are favoring Democrats, who have a 14-point lead, according to a September poll published by Cook Political Report.

Jon Taylor, department chair and political science professor at the University of Texas at San Antonio, said Republicans may have been overly confident in their redistricting and that Democrats could potentially win all South Texas districts in the upcoming midterm elections.

Trump won over Hispanic voters in South Texas largely due to the crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border and their dissatisfaction with the Biden administration’s mishandling of the chaos.

Now, there is concern that Trump has taken an overly heavy-handed approach.

“That shifted Latino support close to a majority and in some counties a definite majority toward Trump and toward Republicans,” Taylor said.

“Now, the problem is the aftermath,” Taylor said. “The assumption was ‘oh, we’re going to continue to keep a Hispanic or Latino voters.’ But then you ended up with the issues related to immigration enforcement … and then combine that with the tariffs on Mexico and how that impacted far South Texas’ economy and when those two things happened … it has had a cumulative effect and what we’ve seen consistently in polling now is that Hispanic support or Latino support, which was relatively even between Republicans and Democrats, has now shifted back to Democrats.”

Incumbent Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz appears to be facing the toughest battle in Texas’ 15th congressional district of the Rio Grande Valley.

Trump would have won the newly drawn district by 18 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election, according to Cook Political Report. De La Cruz, who is running against Democrat Tejano singer Bobby Pulido, won in 2024 by 14 points.

In late September, Cook Political Report moved the race from lean Republican to a toss up.

Trouble may also be brewing in Texas’ 35th congressional district, where De La Cruz’s brother and Air Force veteran Carlos De La Cruz, a Republican, is running against Democrat Johnny Garcia, a Bexar County sheriff’s deputy.

The race was also reclassified from leaning Republican to a toss-up by Cook Political Report.

A recent Washington Post-Schar School poll also shows that Trump is losing favor in the 35th, a territory covering areas east and south of San Antonio, which he won by 10 percentage points in 2024. Now, 24% of Trump supporters in the district disapprove of the president’s job performance.

Roughly half of all voters in the district say they are financially worse off since Trump’s return to the White House, according to the poll.

If Democrats win in South Texas on November 3, that success may not stick in future elections, Taylor said, adding that both Republicans and Democrats should look at them as “swing” voters.

“Just because it’s shifted to Democrats does not mean this is a permanent thing,” Taylor said. “This is one of those things where I would make the argument that Latino voters in Texas are now a swing vote bloc.”

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