California Dems in Disarray After Swalwell’s Exit

A handful of Democrats are still vying for California’s top office, leaving many to wonder which candidate could rise to the top now that former Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell is out.

Within a matter of two days, Swalwell went from being the top Democratic candidate for California’s highest office to announcing the end of his campaign and later resigning from Congress.

Amid the chaos, elections experts and political science professors spoke to The Daily Signal about the disorder that Swalwell’s scandal has caused, and what candidate Californians could see in the general election.

“I’ve been in politics for about 30 years and I’ve never seen such chaos like this,” California Target Book publisher Marva Diaz said.

Speculation that billionaire and failed 2020 presidential candidate Tom Steyer, along with former Rep. Katie Porter, could potentially advance to the general election has circulated online. However, experts appear split on which candidate voters will gravitate toward.

“I would be surprised if they move en masse to one candidate. I think you’re to see them get spread out over several candidates, but you could legitimately make the case for any number of candidates,” Klink Campaigns President Matt Klink told The Daily Signal. “I know that the news media has tended to look at the two frontrunners, but being Tom Steyer and Katie Porter, I think both of them have a ceiling, though, in terms of how high they can go.”

He added that candidates including [former California Attorney General] Xavier Becerra and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan “have a better case to pull in some of the Swalwell voters than the presumed frontrunners” because Steyer and Porter “have some baggage that they have to deal with.”

Prior to his withdrawal, polls showed Swalwell positioned to be the Democratic candidate who would advance through the June primary and potentially become the state’s new governor. However, on Friday the San Francisco Chronicle published a report detailing how a former staffer accused the Democrat of making advances toward her during her time on staff and alleged sexually assaulted her. 

Later that same day, CNN published a report detailing three other women’s interactions with Swalwell. The women accused the lawmaker of abusing his power over them.

On the day that reports broke on Swalwell, prediction sites like Polymarket and Kalshi immediately shot up for Steyer to be the next choice.

But Sarah Hill, a Cal State Fullerton political science professor, told The Daily Signal that a lower-polling candidate could potentially rally the base behind them.

“What I’m seeing, and what I had wondered for a long time, [is] I think many folks are gonna move toward Xavier Becerra,” Hill said. “If you just think about experience, he’s the strongest candidate, and it has puzzled me for a long time why he wasn’t the Democratic favorite.”

According to a Kreate Strategies poll, one of the last surveys conducted prior to Swalwell’s scandal, Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton led the pack at 19%, with Steyer and Swalwell tied at 13%. Fellow Republican gubernatorial candidate Chad Bianco held third at 10%, and Porter at 8%, with others in single digits and an estimated 26% wanting another option or undecided.

Despite both Klink and Hill’s predictions of a new possibility, University of Southern California political science professor Christian Grose predicted Steyer and Porter would rise in the polls within the coming weeks.

Diaz, though, noted that there are caveats to her prediction, which center on endorsements from top donors and how voters could react to the new information about Swalwell.

Late Tuesday evening, the California Teachers Association, which once endorsed Swalwell, announced it would be backing Steyer. The massive union’s decision marks the first major move by those who once backed the former leading candidate, stating California deserves a “Governor who has the courage to hold corporations accountable,” tackle affordability and allow voters access to “quality public schools.”

Although the union’s decision is a noticeable shift, more than 20 Democrats are still certified on the June primary ballot, with Swalwell’s name still on it as well. The large number of candidates has caused disarray for the party in rallying behind one person.

Despite attempts from Democratic state convention chair Rusty Hicks to nudge lower-polling candidates to withdraw from the race, candidates, even those polling behind Porter, have not budged.

Hill said that, with the party in full disarray, the Democratic establishment in the state is going to have to start signaling their preference to voters.

“I think … party leadership will work on kind of pulling it together, saying, ‘All right, folks, we got to figure this out.’ And they will signal strongly,” she said, adding that Swalwell lost all his endorsements and Gov. Gavin Newsom hasn’t weighed in yet.

“So, there’s a lot that Democrats can still do to try to move the voters. And they’ve kind of been waiting a bit to see how things play out,” Hill said.

On Wednesday, CNN reported that sources close to Newsom said the governor is still attempting to “make sense” of the race and will do “everything he can to prevent a lockout.” However, he reportedly has “worries” about a majority of the candidates running.

The possibility of two Republicans advancing to the general election has been discussed since late last year. While the polling odds are low, all the experts who spoke to The Daily Signal notably did not rule out the possibility.

“There’s still a small chance of a Bianco [and] Hilton general [election]. I don’t want to completely rule it out, [but] I think it’s just gone down with the Trump endorsement [of Hilton],” Grose stated.

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