How the Northeast Could Decide the Midterms

Although it is generally viewed as a reliably liberal region, the Northeast has Senate and House races in 2026 that could determine the balance of power in Congress in the midterms.

Here are four states that could be decisive in November.

Maine

Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, is seeking a sixth term in Maine, as the last Republican to hold statewide office in New England. 

She will likely face Democrat Graham Platner, an oyster farmer who has built a large social media presence, in the general election.

Republicans are also positioned to compete in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, where moderate Democrat Rep. Jared Golden is not seeking reelection.

They have enlisted Republican former Gov. Paul LePage to run for the seat. The Democrat front-runners competing for the nomination are Maine Auditor Matt Dunlap and state Sen. Joe Baldacci.

New Hampshire

Although it tends to elect Democrats to federal office, the Granite State is far from a political desert for Republicans.

On the state level, Republicans control both chambers of the Legislature and the governor’s mansion.

Democrat Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is retiring, leaving her seat up for grabs. Rep. Chris Pappas, D-N.H., is the front-runner to be the party’s nominee.

Meanwhile, in the Republican primary, former New Hampshire Sen. John Sununu and former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown are vying for the nomination.

Pennsylvania

The Keystone State will remain a major battleground in 2026.

While Gov. Josh Shapiro vies for reelection in November, Republicans will seek to maintain hold of multiple House districts in the state.

Republican Reps. Scott Perry, Ryan Mackenzie, and Rob Bresnahan are all seeking reelection in districts the Cook Political Report labels as toss-ups. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, a moderate Republican, will also be seeking reelection in a district the report labels as “likely Republican.”

New York

The Empire State has not voted for a Republican for president in four decades, but it’s a crucial state for determining majorities in 2026.

Cook Political Report lists Republican Rep. Mike Lawler’s lower Hudson Valley district as a toss-up in 2026. 

President Donald Trump recently rallied in support of Lawler in his district, giving the congressman credit for having raised the cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions—a major issue in New York and other high-tax states. The remainder of the New York Republican districts are safer.

In the “lean Democrat” category, the report lists three New York districts currently held by Democrat incumbents Reps. Tom Suozzi, Laura Gillen, and Josh Riley.

Although it’s far from a swing state, New York is sure to be an important 2026 battleground.