Crockett Could Become Texas Senate Democratic Nominee As Primaries Heat Up: Poll

A new poll shows that Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) could be Texas’ Democratic Senate nominee, as all eyes have been on the messy primaries in the Lone Star State ahead of the March 3 Election Day.

The University of Houston poll of 550 likely voters showed Crockett up by eight points over state Rep. James Talarico, with 47% compared with his 39%.

“Congresswoman Crockett is in the best position to reassemble a winning Texas democratic coalition in November. That coalition requires exciting the base to turn out, while bringing working people, Latinos, and young voters back into the fold. The poll demonstrates that independents and disillusioned Republicans favor Crockett as opposed to the other candidates,” her campaign said in a press release on Monday regarding the survey conducted from Jan. 20-31.

Other polls have shown Crockett leading, but some, like a recent Emerson College survey, have shown Talarico ahead by as much as nine percentage points. The race turned ugly after former Democratic Senate candidate Rep. Colin Allred strongly criticized Talarico over an allegation that the state representative referred to the former congressman as a “mediocre Black man,” according to the Texas Tribune.

The National Republican Campaign Committee said that Crockett’s lead in the poll is a sign that the Democratic Party is moving further to the Left, even in the traditionally conservative Lone Star State.

“Today’s Democrat Party is getting more progressive and extreme by the second, but one thing remains true: Jasmine Crockett’s radical anti-Trump agenda is wrong for Texas,” NRSC Regional Press Secretary Samantha Cantrell said in a statement to The Daily Wire. The group is backing incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the competitive Republican primary.

On the Republican side, President Donald Trump has yet to make an endorsement in the race, and it’s unclear if he will with less than a month to go. Cornyn is up against Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt for the seat, and the same University of Houston poll showed Paxton leading with 38%, compared with 31% for the incumbent senator and 17% for Hunt.

Hunt’s campaign spokesperson, James Kyrkanides, said in a statement that the poll is an “interesting snapshot” into the general electorate. In head-to-head matchups, each of the Republican candidates would defeat either Crockett or Talarico by a thin margin. Paxton would defeat either Democrat by two points, Cornyn would beat Crockett by two and Talarico by one, and Hunt would beat Crockett by three and Talarico by four.

Kyrkanides said other polls have indicated that the “campaign has surged into second place” and that “John Cornyn’s campaign has collapsed.”

Texas primaries require a candidate to break 50% of the vote to become the nominee.

“While the primary results in the [university] poll are being debated, one fact is undeniable: Among general election voters, Wesley Hunt once again outperforms both John Cornyn and Ken Paxton,” the statement continued. “This has been consistent since the day Hunt entered the race in October. The data keeps saying the same thing. Anyone making ‘electability’ arguments while excluding Wesley Hunt isn’t serious about winning. They’re serious about protecting the status quo. Texas voters are moving on.”

Paxton said that the poll, which also indicates he would defeat Cornyn in a runoff, is a good sign that he will be the Republican nominee.

“Ensuring that low-propensity America First voters are motivated to show up in November is critical to Republicans’ success in 2026, and John Cornyn is the single worst person in Texas to accomplish that. Luckily, he won’t be on the ballot because Texans are ready to fire him this spring. In 2022, I faced tens of millions in negative attacks and then proceeded to overwhelmingly defeat my primary opponents and win the general by nearly ten points. I’m ready and in a strong position to do the same in 2026.”

As for Cornyn, he’s pulled no punches against his opponents on both sides of the aisle, as he came out with an ad on Sunday taking aim at both Democrats, and recently saying that he is the “only electable Republican in this primary, a proven conservative with real experience and results who votes with President Trump more than 99% of the time.”

The Cook Political Report currently ranks the general election race as “Likely Republican.”