Here’s How People Are Betting On Tonight’s Heated Texas Senate Primaries

Texas’s long-awaited Senate primary is Tuesday, and election watchers aren’t the only ones eagerly awaiting the results.

Kalshi users have wagered over $10 million on tonight’s primary as of this writing, the latest sign of the prediction market’s growing place in politics. Republicans have a 64% chance of winning the general election, while Democrats have just 36%, the current odds show.

As for the primaries, Attorney General Ken Paxton has an 83% chance to win the Republican nomination, with incumbent Sen. John Cornyn at 17% and Rep. Wesley Hunt at 1%. If none of the three candidates gets over 50% of the vote on Tuesday night, then the top two candidates will head to a runoff on May 26. President Donald Trump previously said he backs all three of the candidates, and did not make a specific endorsement ahead of the initial Tuesday primary.

For the Democrats, Kalshi has state Senator James Talarico’s odds at 85% for winning the nomination compared with 15% for firebrand Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett.

“Texas remains a critical part of President Trump’s Senate Majority,” National Republican Senatorial Committee Communications Director Joanna Rodriguez said in a statement on Tuesday morning. The NRSC is backing Cornyn. “It doesn’t matter which radical Democrat makes it out of their messy primary tonight: James Talarico and Jasmine Crockett are both too radical for Texas and must be defeated in November,” she added.

There’s a 74% chance that Talarico and Paxton face off in the general election, but just a 13% chance the ultimate matchup is Talarico vs. Cornyn. The odds of a Crockett-Paxton matchup sit at just 12%, with other possibilities being even lower.

The Associated Press is providing election results data to Kalshi for Tuesday’s primary, a collaboration that “will further Kalshi’s goal of being the premier destination to experience elections,” Jaron Zhou, Kalshi’s Head of Politics, said in a statement on Monday.

“Kalshi’s election forecasts help campaigns and everyday citizens track market expectations for election outcomes, and integrating AP’s live vote count data enhances Kalshi’s election night experience by bringing together real-time vote tallies and market activity,” Zhou added.

Polls close at 8:00 p.m. ET in the Lone Star State. On the campaign trail, the candidates are making their final pitch to voters, including Crockett, who’s visiting multiple polling places throughout the day.

“If you haven’t voted yet, today is the day for you! I’m at the top of your ballot and asking for your support to continue our fight for affordability and accountability!” Crockett posted to X on Tuesday morning. “I’m on the move all day because this fight is bigger than one stop, one speech, or one person. I’d love to see you pull up and meet me and my friends at the polls!”

Trump won Texas handily in 2024, but the midterms are a critical tipping point for the president, as Republicans seek to maintain or grow the 53-seat majority in the Senate and the 218-seat majority in the House.