Will Florida Save Republicans in Redistricting War?

Virginia Democrats dealt Republicans a major defeat in the national redistricting war with a successful redistricting ballot measure on Tuesday, but the final battle may take place in Tallahassee, Florida.

On Tuesday, over 51% of voters opted to support allowing Virginia’s Democrat-controlled Legislature to redraw the 11-seat congressional map to boot up to four of the state’s five Republicans from Congress.

Should courts reaffirm the referendum’s result, it will likely offset any gains Republicans may have hoped for from a year of tit-for-tat redistricting that began with the Texas Legislature drawing five new Republican-friendly districts during the summer of 2025.

Democrats first retaliated with the passage of a constitutional ballot measure to allow California to redraw its congressional map.

Later, Republicans in the Indiana state Senate shot down a Trump-backed redistricting plan, although maps were redrawn in North Carolina and Ohio to Republicans’ benefit.

Now, Republicans may look to Florida to land another blow in the fight.

In January, Gov. Ron DeSantis called for a special session of the Florida Legislature focused on redistricting to take place in April.

The four-day session starts Tuesday, April 28.

The governor has argued that since “Florida has experienced 10 years’ worth of population growth in, like, three,” its districts “are not fairly apportioned.”

Florida has 20 Republicans and eight Democrats in its House delegation. It last redistricted in 2022 under DeSantis.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., who campaigned for the Virginia ballot measure, said after the Democrat victory that any retaliatory redistricting attempt in Florida would stretch Republicans’ voters too thin and boost Democrats’ chances.

“If Florida Republicans proceed with this illegal scheme, they will only create more prime pick-up opportunities for Democrats,” Jeffries said, vowing to “aggressively target” Republican incumbents.

DeSantis fired back at Jeffries’ threats to target Florida seats in a press conference on Wednesday, saying, “Please, be my guest. I will pay for you to come down to Florida to campaign. I’ll put you up in the Florida governor’s mansion.”

He added, “There’s nothing that could be better for Republicans in Florida than to see Jeffries … everywhere around this state. Voters will not like what they see.”

A potential obstacle to pro-Republican redistricting in Florida is a state constitutional amendment blocking redistricting “with the intent to favor or disfavor a political party or incumbent.”