New Census Data Signals A Coming Republican Edge In 2030

Based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s Population and Housing Unit Estimates released on Tuesday, the United States is seeing a significant demographic shift that favors the GOP for the 2030 congressional reapportionment. Despite reporting delays caused by last year’s government shutdown, the data reveal a massive migration trend toward Southern and “Sun Belt” states.

The growth has been concentrated in a handful of fast-expanding states. Texas led the nation, adding 391,243 residents (a 1.2% increase), according to the estimates. Florida and North Carolina followed with significant gains. Overall, nine states gained more than 60,000 residents, including Georgia, South Carolina, and Arizona. Conversely, five states saw net population declines, with California losing nearly 9,500 residents.

Domestic migration is the primary driver of these shifts. California (-229,077), New York (-137,586), and Illinois (-40,017) experienced the largest domestic outflow. In contrast, North Carolina, Texas, and South Carolina enjoyed the highest domestic inflows.

International migration remains a universal growth factor, with Florida (+178,674) and Texas (+167,475) leading that category.

Projections for 2030 suggest a major realignment of political power:

• Gains: Texas is expected to gain 4 House seats; Florida (+2); and Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, North Carolina, and Utah (+1 each).

• Losses: California is projected to lose 4 seats, while Illinois, New York, Oregon, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Rhode Island are each expected to lose 1.

Analysts note that under this map, the 2024 Republican presidential victory would have yielded 11 additional electoral votes.

This is why Democrats are fighting so hard for illegal immigrants to stay in the country. The 2030 census is going to crush them as population is soaring in red states. https://t.co/NzswwlTqIM

— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) January 27, 2026

The report highlights ongoing debates regarding Census accuracy. Critics argue that counting non-citizens for apportionment purposes artificially inflates representation for Democratic-leaning states, particularly those with large immigrant populations.

This is the real issue. Illegal aliens are outrageously counted in the Census for Congressional representation. Even though they can't legally vote – they give Democrats more power in Washington D.C. That's why there is so much resistance from the Left on deportations. https://t.co/tYrqLnE3UN

— Katie Pavlich (@KatiePavlich) January 27, 2026

Furthermore, a 2022 Census Bureau study acknowledged significant errors in the 2020 count: Republican-leaning states such as Arkansas, Florida, and Texas were undercounted, while Democratic-leaning states such as New York and Rhode Island were overcounted. These inaccuracies likely cost Florida and Texas additional House seats in the previous cycle, a discrepancy attributed to pandemic-era data collection challenges.