NY GOP Congresswoman Leads Incumbent Democrat for Governor, Poll Finds

In a surprising showing, Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., is leading incumbent Democrat New York Gov. Kathy Hochul in a recent independent poll pitting the two New Yorkers against one another in a hypothetical governor’s race.

The poll, conducted by the Manhattan Institute between Oct. 22 and Oct. 26, found Stefanik garnering 43% support among a sample of registered voters from around New York state. Hochul polled 42%. The option of someone else garnered 9% in the poll, while “not sure” drew 7%.

“The margin of error is ±4% for the NYC sample, and ±3.3% for the full New York statewide sample,” according to the Manhattan Institute. Still, the statistical tie is stunning in a state that voted for then-Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democrat, in last year’s presidential election by double digits.

Hochul has thrown her support behind self-described democratic socialist New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani over her former boss, Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic governor now running for mayor as an independent.

Even some Mamdani supporters appear less than enthused by the New York governor. Hochul was heckled during her recent appearance in Queens with the mayoral candidate with calls to “tax the rich.”

“Kathy Hochul and single-party Democrat rule have failed New York, making it the most unaffordable state in the country, with the highest taxes, energy, utility, rent, and grocery bills, making it unaffordable to raise a family, work, and start a business,” Stefanik spokeswoman Bernadette Breslin said in a statement, adding:

New Yorkers of all political parties are hungry for new common sense leadership after decades of Hochul’s failed, single-party Democrat rule.

Stefanik is a New York state native who has served in the House of Representatives since 2015. She was chairwoman of the House Republican Conference from 2021 to 2025. A prominent defender of Israel, Stefanik earned national press coverage over her grilling of university presidents in the wake of rising antisemitism on college campuses following the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas terrorist attacks against Israel. 

Hochul took over the governor’s mansion in August 2021 following the resignation of her predecessor, Cuomo. She had previously served as lieutenant governor of New York from 2015 to 2021 and as a New York congresswoman from 2011 to 2013.

A separate poll found that only 39% of New Yorkers approve of Hochul’s performance as governor, compared with 56% that disapprove. 

Stefanik has yet to officially declare her candidacy to be the Republican nominee for the 2026 New York gubernatorial election, but is expected to do so after the off-year elections next Tuesday. 

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